Anthropic’s rapid revenue expansion and transparent S-1 filing underpin the 82.5% market-implied probability it will hold the higher valuation by year-end. Its Q3 2026 revenue reached $17 billion, supporting secondary marks near $1.45 trillion and an IPO target range of $1.2–1.5 trillion, well above the $965 billion post-money valuation from its May Series H. In contrast, OpenAI’s latest round closed only $11 billion of a scaled-back $20 billion target at $1.25 trillion, down from earlier $1.4 trillion+ ambitions, amid a broad AI equity sell-off that erased trillions in market value. With Anthropic’s Nasdaq listing expected before Thanksgiving, traders are pricing in sustained leadership driven by disclosed growth metrics and compute commitments rather than the more opaque private fundraising dynamics at OpenAI.