Incumbent Javier Milei leads the 2027 Argentine presidential race under La Libertad Avanza, with traders assigning roughly 54% probability amid his party's 2025 midterm gains and progress on fiscal austerity and inflation reduction. Recent polls show his approval slipping into the mid-30s due to persistent inflation above 3% monthly, wage pressures, and isolated corruption allegations, creating openings for opposition consolidation. Axel Kicillof, the Peronist governor of Buenos Aires province, trails at around 40% as the main challenger, bolstered by Peronist efforts to form a broad alliance ahead of the October 2027 vote. Lower probabilities for figures such as Sergio Massa reflect ongoing opposition fragmentation and limited polling strength, while the market prices reflect skin-in-the-game assessment of incumbency advantages against economic headwinds and potential coalition dynamics.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วArgentina Presidential Election Winner
Argentina Presidential Election Winner
Javier Milei 55%
Axel Kicillof 40%
Sergio Massa 5.3%
Dante Gebel <1%
$516,915 ปริมาณ
$516,915 ปริมาณ
Javier Milei
55%
Axel Kicillof
40%
Sergio Massa
5%
Dante Gebel
1%
Victoria Villarruel
1%
Juan Grabois
1%
Myriam Bregman
<1%
Mauricio Macri
<1%
Juan Schiaretti
<1%
Esteban Bullrich
<1%
Facundo Manes
<1%
Javier Milei 55%
Axel Kicillof 40%
Sergio Massa 5.3%
Dante Gebel <1%
$516,915 ปริมาณ
$516,915 ปริมาณ
Javier Milei
55%
Axel Kicillof
40%
Sergio Massa
5%
Dante Gebel
1%
Victoria Villarruel
1%
Juan Grabois
1%
Myriam Bregman
<1%
Mauricio Macri
<1%
Juan Schiaretti
<1%
Esteban Bullrich
<1%
Facundo Manes
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Javier Milei leads the 2027 Argentine presidential race under La Libertad Avanza, with traders assigning roughly 54% probability amid his party's 2025 midterm gains and progress on fiscal austerity and inflation reduction. Recent polls show his approval slipping into the mid-30s due to persistent inflation above 3% monthly, wage pressures, and isolated corruption allegations, creating openings for opposition consolidation. Axel Kicillof, the Peronist governor of Buenos Aires province, trails at around 40% as the main challenger, bolstered by Peronist efforts to form a broad alliance ahead of the October 2027 vote. Lower probabilities for figures such as Sergio Massa reflect ongoing opposition fragmentation and limited polling strength, while the market prices reflect skin-in-the-game assessment of incumbency advantages against economic headwinds and potential coalition dynamics.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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