A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads trader consensus at 43.5% implied probability to win Brazil's October 4, 2026 presidential election, reflecting his consistent first-round polling edge of 4-6 points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (30.3%) in recent Quaest, Futura, and Ideia surveys from early May. These polls show Lula at 38-40% versus Flávio's 33-37%, with fragmented support for challengers like Ronaldo Caiado (4-5%) and Romeu Zema (3-4%). Simulated runoffs remain statistical dead heats (e.g., Quaest: Lula 42%-Flávio 41%), underscoring the polarized race fueled by Jair Bolsonaro's December 2025 endorsement of his son, who has consolidated right-wing votes. Incumbency advantages Lula amid economic pressures, but high rejection rates for both signal volatility ahead of the first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads trader consensus at 43.5% implied probability to win Brazil's October 4, 2026 presidential election, reflecting his consistent first-round polling edge of 4-6 points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (30.3%) in recent Quaest, Futura, and Ideia surveys from early May. These polls show Lula at 38-40% versus Flávio's 33-37%, with fragmented support for challengers like Ronaldo Caiado (4-5%) and Romeu Zema (3-4%). Simulated runoffs remain statistical dead heats (e.g., Quaest: Lula 42%-Flávio 41%), underscoring the polarized race fueled by Jair Bolsonaro's December 2025 endorsement of his son, who has consolidated right-wing votes. Incumbency advantages Lula amid economic pressures, but high rejection rates for both signal volatility ahead of the first round.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
May 12 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro’s price drops 10 points after controversial interview
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%12%
An interview in which Flávio made inflammatory remarks led to a rapid decline from 45 % to 33 %, reflecting voter backlash.
May 7 2026
Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 34%10%
Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered the transfer of Jair Bolsonaro to a larger prison cell with better conditions, which may affect his health and political influence. This event followed his recent medical issues and was part of ongoing legal proceedings.
May 7 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro peaks at 45 % after rally in São Paulo
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 45%7%
A large rally in São Paulo energized Flávio’s base, pushing his price to a market high before a slight correction later in May.
A slowdown in Brazil’s GDP growth lowered voter confidence in Lula, driving his price to a new trough.
Apr 18 2026
Lula’s approval dips after controversial Amazon mining concessions
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 40%12%
Environmental controversy hurt Lula’s standing, contributing to a decline from 52 % to 40 % in his market price.
Mar 12 2026
Former President Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 17%5%
Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery while serving his 27-year prison sentence, temporarily affecting his health and political activity. This event coincided with a temporary increase in attention to Bolsonaro's condition and his son Flávio's candidacy.
Feb 16 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro reaches 29 % after releasing detailed policy platform
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%3%
Flávio’s rollout of a concrete economic platform reassured voters, pushing his price upward during February.
Jan 30 2026
Brazil’s finance minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for Sao Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Fernando Haddad resigned as Brazil’s finance minister to run for governor of Sao Paulo, reducing his chances in the presidential race and causing his market price to drop significantly from over 50% to around 3%.
Jan 8 2026
Brazil’s Lula vetoes bill that could reduce Bolsonaro’s prison time
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vetoed a bill that would have reduced the 27-year prison sentence of former President Jair Bolsonaro for his coup attempt, reinforcing Lula's stance against Bolsonaro and impacting Bolsonaro's political prospects negatively.
Dec 30 2025
Renan Santos’ poll share collapses after poor debate performance
Renan Santos plunges to 6%44%
A televised debate in late December highlighted Santos’ lack of national recognition, causing his price to tumble from 50 % to single‑digit levels.
Dec 25 2025
Flávio Bolsonaro announced as presidential candidate by his father Jair Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 12%11%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro appointed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the presidential candidate for their party, boosting Flávio's profile and causing a significant rise in his market price from near 1% to over 12%. This announcement positioned Flávio as a main challenger to Lula.
Dec 20 2025
Michelle Bolsonaro’s public support drops after husband’s surgery
Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 1%51%
With Jair Bolsonaro’s limited visibility, Michelle Bolsonaro’s own political relevance faded sharply, reflected in a plunge of her market price to near‑zero.
Dec 20 2025
Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery and returns to prison
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 27%15%
Bolsonaro’s health episode kept him out of the public eye, limiting his campaign impact and shifting attention to his son Flávio, whose price continued to rise.
Dec 6 2025
Lula’s administration replaces Haddad with Dario Durigan
Fernando Haddad dips to 2%2%
The cabinet shuffle further signaled a shift away from Haddad’s influence, reinforcing the market’s move away from his candidacy.
Dec 6 2025
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 4%48%
Haddad’s resignation removed a senior Lula ally from the cabinet, diminishing his personal political brand and causing a steep decline in his own election market price.
Oct 12 2025
Flávio Bolsonaro emerges as Bolsonaro’s official presidential candidate
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 11%9%
Following the veto, Flávio Bolsonaro announced he would run as the official candidate of the Bolsonaro camp, giving his name a clear electoral identity and driving his market price upward.
Oct 12 2025
President Lula vetoes bill that would reduce Bolsonaro’s prison sentence
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 63%8%
Lula’s veto signaled a hard‑line stance against Bolsonaro’s legal challenges, boosting Lula’s perceived strength and raising Flávio Bolsonaro’s profile as the main challenger, while hurting Bolsonaro‑aligned candidates.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads trader consensus at 43.5% implied probability to win Brazil's October 4, 2026 presidential election, reflecting his consistent first-round polling edge of 4-6 points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (30.3%) in recent Quaest, Futura, and Ideia surveys from early May. These polls show Lula at 38-40% versus Flávio's 33-37%, with fragmented support for challengers like Ronaldo Caiado (4-5%) and Romeu Zema (3-4%). Simulated runoffs remain statistical dead heats (e.g., Quaest: Lula 42%-Flávio 41%), underscoring the polarized race fueled by Jair Bolsonaro's December 2025 endorsement of his son, who has consolidated right-wing votes. Incumbency advantages Lula amid economic pressures, but high rejection rates for both signal volatility ahead of the first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads trader consensus at 43.5% implied probability to win Brazil's October 4, 2026 presidential election, reflecting his consistent first-round polling edge of 4-6 points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (30.3%) in recent Quaest, Futura, and Ideia surveys from early May. These polls show Lula at 38-40% versus Flávio's 33-37%, with fragmented support for challengers like Ronaldo Caiado (4-5%) and Romeu Zema (3-4%). Simulated runoffs remain statistical dead heats (e.g., Quaest: Lula 42%-Flávio 41%), underscoring the polarized race fueled by Jair Bolsonaro's December 2025 endorsement of his son, who has consolidated right-wing votes. Incumbency advantages Lula amid economic pressures, but high rejection rates for both signal volatility ahead of the first round.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
May 12 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro’s price drops 10 points after controversial interview
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%12%
An interview in which Flávio made inflammatory remarks led to a rapid decline from 45 % to 33 %, reflecting voter backlash.
May 7 2026
Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 34%10%
Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered the transfer of Jair Bolsonaro to a larger prison cell with better conditions, which may affect his health and political influence. This event followed his recent medical issues and was part of ongoing legal proceedings.
May 7 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro peaks at 45 % after rally in São Paulo
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 45%7%
A large rally in São Paulo energized Flávio’s base, pushing his price to a market high before a slight correction later in May.
A slowdown in Brazil’s GDP growth lowered voter confidence in Lula, driving his price to a new trough.
Apr 18 2026
Lula’s approval dips after controversial Amazon mining concessions
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 40%12%
Environmental controversy hurt Lula’s standing, contributing to a decline from 52 % to 40 % in his market price.
Mar 12 2026
Former President Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 17%5%
Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery while serving his 27-year prison sentence, temporarily affecting his health and political activity. This event coincided with a temporary increase in attention to Bolsonaro's condition and his son Flávio's candidacy.
Feb 16 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro reaches 29 % after releasing detailed policy platform
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%3%
Flávio’s rollout of a concrete economic platform reassured voters, pushing his price upward during February.
Jan 30 2026
Brazil’s finance minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for Sao Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Fernando Haddad resigned as Brazil’s finance minister to run for governor of Sao Paulo, reducing his chances in the presidential race and causing his market price to drop significantly from over 50% to around 3%.
Jan 8 2026
Brazil’s Lula vetoes bill that could reduce Bolsonaro’s prison time
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vetoed a bill that would have reduced the 27-year prison sentence of former President Jair Bolsonaro for his coup attempt, reinforcing Lula's stance against Bolsonaro and impacting Bolsonaro's political prospects negatively.
Dec 30 2025
Renan Santos’ poll share collapses after poor debate performance
Renan Santos plunges to 6%44%
A televised debate in late December highlighted Santos’ lack of national recognition, causing his price to tumble from 50 % to single‑digit levels.
Dec 25 2025
Flávio Bolsonaro announced as presidential candidate by his father Jair Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 12%11%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro appointed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the presidential candidate for their party, boosting Flávio's profile and causing a significant rise in his market price from near 1% to over 12%. This announcement positioned Flávio as a main challenger to Lula.
Dec 20 2025
Michelle Bolsonaro’s public support drops after husband’s surgery
Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 1%51%
With Jair Bolsonaro’s limited visibility, Michelle Bolsonaro’s own political relevance faded sharply, reflected in a plunge of her market price to near‑zero.
Dec 20 2025
Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery and returns to prison
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 27%15%
Bolsonaro’s health episode kept him out of the public eye, limiting his campaign impact and shifting attention to his son Flávio, whose price continued to rise.
Dec 6 2025
Lula’s administration replaces Haddad with Dario Durigan
Fernando Haddad dips to 2%2%
The cabinet shuffle further signaled a shift away from Haddad’s influence, reinforcing the market’s move away from his candidacy.
Dec 6 2025
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 4%48%
Haddad’s resignation removed a senior Lula ally from the cabinet, diminishing his personal political brand and causing a steep decline in his own election market price.
Oct 12 2025
Flávio Bolsonaro emerges as Bolsonaro’s official presidential candidate
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 11%9%
Following the veto, Flávio Bolsonaro announced he would run as the official candidate of the Bolsonaro camp, giving his name a clear electoral identity and driving his market price upward.
Oct 12 2025
President Lula vetoes bill that would reduce Bolsonaro’s prison sentence
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 63%8%
Lula’s veto signaled a hard‑line stance against Bolsonaro’s legal challenges, boosting Lula’s perceived strength and raising Flávio Bolsonaro’s profile as the main challenger, while hurting Bolsonaro‑aligned candidates.
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