Trader consensus on the low likelihood of Flávio Bolsonaro's arrest before 2027 reflects his recent flight to the United States after Brazil's Supreme Federal Court ordered passport surrender in late October 2026 amid multiple STF investigations into alleged money laundering tied to online betting and film financing. As a defeated presidential candidate with Senate term ending in February 2027, he faces ongoing probes but no formal charges or preventive detention order to date, while U.S. entry reduces immediate enforcement risks. Extradition remains procedurally complex even if warrants issue. Realistic shifts could arise from new indictments, Brazilian requests for international cooperation, or his voluntary return before year-end, though current barriers sustain the implied probability.