Brazil’s Copom cut the Selic rate by 25 basis points to 13.75% in mid-September, citing decelerating activity, easing core inflation measures, and a data-dependent stance that left room for further calibration. Recent minutes highlighted weaker credit conditions and economic momentum while inflation projections for the policy horizon stayed anchored near target, supporting market pricing that assigns a 67.5% implied probability to another 25-basis-point reduction at the November meeting. The Focus survey of economists has shifted its year-end 2026 Selic forecast to 13.50%, reflecting expectations of one additional quarter-point easing before year-end. Election-related uncertainty and potential post-vote exchange-rate volatility continue to cap the odds of a larger move or an immediate pause, with the 27.5% probability on no change reflecting those cross-currents ahead of the October vote and subsequent data releases.