Ongoing US-Iran conflict since late February 2026 has kept Strait of Hormuz traffic severely restricted, with AIS-visible commercial transits averaging roughly 3-7% of pre-crisis norms as of early October. Iranian officials, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, have reiterated that the waterway will not reopen normally until Tehran’s seven conditions from the June Islamabad Memorandum are met, including an end to US naval presence, economic measures, and related demands. Recent tanker strikes near Oman and in the strait, plus unresolved issues such as mines and competing transit corridors, have sustained the disruption. Diplomatic exchanges continue through mediators, but no breakthrough has produced a durable de-escalation or agreed navigation regime. These factors underpin trader expectations that full normalization remains unlikely before year-end.