**Traders assign an 87.5% probability to “No” because Iran has not signaled willingness to halt uranium enrichment entirely by year-end, despite ongoing indirect talks with the United States.** Recent diplomatic exchanges at the UN General Assembly and mediated channels in New York and Geneva have produced Iranian proposals to dilute or transfer its 60%-enriched stockpile and restore IAEA inspector access in exchange for sanctions relief and frozen-asset releases. However, core differences persist over sequencing, verification mechanisms, and Tehran’s insistence on retaining a right to peaceful enrichment under the NPT. Iranian officials, including lawmakers considering NPT withdrawal options, have reaffirmed continued enrichment activities, while U.S. positions emphasize strict limits or zero enrichment. These entrenched positions and the absence of a comprehensive framework agreement sustain market expectations that a full end to enrichment will not be reached by the December 31 deadline.