Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged or destroyed Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while limiting access to remaining stockpiles of up to 60 percent enriched uranium estimated at roughly 200 kilograms in protected tunnels. Ongoing reconstruction at weaponization-related sites such as Minzadayi shows cleanup and vehicle activity but no verified restart of large-scale enrichment or weaponization work, with IAEA inspections blocked since mid-2025. These factors underpin trader consensus that Iran lacks the operational capacity for a full nuclear test by the end of 2026. Late diplomatic shifts, accelerated covert rebuilding, or undetected progress in hardened sites remain the primary variables that could alter timelines.