The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience through 2026 drives the 97.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Despite U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February, damaged nuclear and missile sites, and triggered leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij have maintained control. Security forces suppressed widespread January protests across all provinces with high lethality and arrests, while the regime adapted command structures, dispersed assets, and sustained asymmetric capabilities including Strait of Hormuz leverage. Economic strain and internal disputes persist without producing institutional breakdown or security defections. Realistic shifts could still occur via renewed large-scale protests coinciding with elite fractures, major escalation forcing concessions or splits, or verified leadership incapacitation that exposes succession weaknesses before the 2027 deadline.