The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid 2025-2026 protests, leadership transitions following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, and direct US-Israeli military strikes underpins the 78% trader consensus against collapse before 2028. Security forces including the IRGC maintained cohesion and suppressed widespread unrest across provinces, while the system adapted through institutional shifts favoring military elements and managed economic pressures from sanctions and conflict. Analysts note the regime's capacity to absorb shocks without elite defections or sustained national non-cooperation that historically precede falls, though ongoing economic strain, proxy setbacks, and diplomatic talks introduce uncertainty. This track record of survival through multiple crises supports the implied probability favoring continuity over rapid regime change in the remaining timeframe.