Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated in a joint US-Israel strike in early March 2026, prompting the Assembly of Experts to name his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as Iran's new Supreme Leader by early March. Mojtaba sustained severe injuries in the same attacks—including facial burns, leg damage requiring prosthetics, and speech difficulties—leading to his isolation and reliance on couriers or audio for decisions, with reports of AI-generated videos simulating public appearances. Recent US intelligence assessments through mid-May highlight doubts over his effective control amid a collective leadership by IRGC generals, fueling trader uncertainty on further transitions. Ongoing diplomatic talks, such as stalled Islamabad negotiations, and potential escalations in the Iran conflict could trigger instability or power shifts before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$13,516,242 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
31 พฤษภาคม
8%
30 มิถุนายน
14%
31 ธันวาคม
35%
$13,516,242 ปริมาณ
31 พฤษภาคม
$1,879,007 ปริมาณ
8%
30 มิถุนายน
$1,054,348 ปริมาณ
14%
31 ธันวาคม
$2,387,006 ปริมาณ
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated in a joint US-Israel strike in early March 2026, prompting the Assembly of Experts to name his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as Iran's new Supreme Leader by early March. Mojtaba sustained severe injuries in the same attacks—including facial burns, leg damage requiring prosthetics, and speech difficulties—leading to his isolation and reliance on couriers or audio for decisions, with reports of AI-generated videos simulating public appearances. Recent US intelligence assessments through mid-May highlight doubts over his effective control amid a collective leadership by IRGC generals, fueling trader uncertainty on further transitions. Ongoing diplomatic talks, such as stalled Islamabad negotiations, and potential escalations in the Iran conflict could trigger instability or power shifts before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$13,516,242วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated in a joint US-Israel strike in early March 2026, prompting the Assembly of Experts to name his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as Iran's new Supreme Leader by early March. Mojtaba sustained severe injuries in the same attacks—including facial burns, leg damage requiring prosthetics, and speech difficulties—leading to his isolation and reliance on couriers or audio for decisions, with reports of AI-generated videos simulating public appearances. Recent US intelligence assessments through mid-May highlight doubts over his effective control amid a collective leadership by IRGC generals, fueling trader uncertainty on further transitions. Ongoing diplomatic talks, such as stalled Islamabad negotiations, and potential escalations in the Iran conflict could trigger instability or power shifts before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$13,516,242วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated in a joint US-Israel strike in early March 2026, prompting the Assembly of Experts to name his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as Iran's new Supreme Leader by early March. Mojtaba sustained severe injuries in the same attacks—including facial burns, leg damage requiring prosthetics, and speech difficulties—leading to his isolation and reliance on couriers or audio for decisions, with reports of AI-generated videos simulating public appearances. Recent US intelligence assessments through mid-May highlight doubts over his effective control amid a collective leadership by IRGC generals, fueling trader uncertainty on further transitions. Ongoing diplomatic talks, such as stalled Islamabad negotiations, and potential escalations in the Iran conflict could trigger instability or power shifts before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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