Ongoing US-Iran conflict and repeated attacks on tankers, including multiple strikes reported in early October 2026, sustain severely restricted Strait of Hormuz traffic at roughly 7% of pre-crisis levels, underpinning the 90.5% market-implied probability that normal volumes will not resume by November 30. Iran's parliament has reiterated that reopening requires fulfillment of seven conditions tied to the Islamabad Memorandum, including an end to the US naval blockade and economic measures, while AIS data shows persistent low daily transits amid GPS jamming and selective permitting. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched barriers and limited diplomatic progress near resolution. A verified ceasefire or asset release easing enforcement could still shift outcomes, though recent developments indicate low near-term likelihood.