Houthi forces seized Yemen’s full Red Sea coastline and key islands including Perim in September 2026, positioning missiles and drones within striking range of shipping lanes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait while enforcing a declared blockade on Saudi-linked vessels. This followed renewed attacks since July that halved daily transits on some days and prompted widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, though IMF PortWatch data has not yet recorded the seven-day average of ten or fewer arrivals that defines “effective closure.” Saudi Arabia is reportedly preparing a Yemeni-led ground offensive with air support to reclaim coastal access, while several nations signal naval escorts to sustain traffic. Ongoing clashes, pipeline strikes, and volatility warnings from the UN keep risk elevated, but current volumes remain above the market threshold and counter-measures limit the probability of sustained shutdown in the near term.