Houthi threats of a maritime blockade on Saudi-linked vessels, announced in late July 2026 and followed by renewed attacks including a deadly strike in the strait on August 11, have driven sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits. Shipping data from Kpler and Clarksons show daily commodity-vessel crossings stabilizing in the low 20s to low 30s range through early August—roughly 50% below prior levels—as tankers reroute around Africa or hold position amid elevated insurance premiums and attack risks. This has produced closely matched market-implied odds across the 180–199, <180, 200–219, and 220+ bins, reflecting trader consensus on persistently suppressed volumes with limited near-term catalysts for material upside absent de-escalation in Yemen-Saudi tensions.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
180-199 33%
220+ 17%
200-219 13.8%
<180 0
$12,247 ปริมาณ
$12,247 ปริมาณ
Aug 16, 2026
<180
31%
180-199
33%
200-219
26%
220+
29%
180-199 33%
220+ 17%
200-219 13.8%
<180 0
$12,247 ปริมาณ
$12,247 ปริมาณ
Aug 16, 2026
<180
$6,149 ปริมาณ
31%
180-199
$2,022 ปริมาณ
33%
200-219
$812 ปริมาณ
26%
220+
$3,264 ปริมาณ
29%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Houthi threats of a maritime blockade on Saudi-linked vessels, announced in late July 2026 and followed by renewed attacks including a deadly strike in the strait on August 11, have driven sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits. Shipping data from Kpler and Clarksons show daily commodity-vessel crossings stabilizing in the low 20s to low 30s range through early August—roughly 50% below prior levels—as tankers reroute around Africa or hold position amid elevated insurance premiums and attack risks. This has produced closely matched market-implied odds across the 180–199, <180, 200–219, and 220+ bins, reflecting trader consensus on persistently suppressed volumes with limited near-term catalysts for material upside absent de-escalation in Yemen-Saudi tensions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,247วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Houthi threats of a maritime blockade on Saudi-linked vessels, announced in late July 2026 and followed by renewed attacks including a deadly strike in the strait on August 11, have driven sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits. Shipping data from Kpler and Clarksons show daily commodity-vessel crossings stabilizing in the low 20s to low 30s range through early August—roughly 50% below prior levels—as tankers reroute around Africa or hold position amid elevated insurance premiums and attack risks. This has produced closely matched market-implied odds across the 180–199, <180, 200–219, and 220+ bins, reflecting trader consensus on persistently suppressed volumes with limited near-term catalysts for material upside absent de-escalation in Yemen-Saudi tensions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,247วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Houthi threats of a maritime blockade on Saudi-linked vessels, announced in late July 2026 and followed by renewed attacks including a deadly strike in the strait on August 11, have driven sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits. Shipping data from Kpler and Clarksons show daily commodity-vessel crossings stabilizing in the low 20s to low 30s range through early August—roughly 50% below prior levels—as tankers reroute around Africa or hold position amid elevated insurance premiums and attack risks. This has produced closely matched market-implied odds across the 180–199, <180, 200–219, and 220+ bins, reflecting trader consensus on persistently suppressed volumes with limited near-term catalysts for material upside absent de-escalation in Yemen-Saudi tensions.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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