**Ongoing US-Iran tensions and attacks on vessels have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at crisis lows, driving trader expectations toward 25-49 ships (57.5% implied probability) or fewer (35.5%) for the week of August 17.** Recent data from tracking firms like Kpler, MarineTraffic, and Windward show daily crossings in the low single digits to mid-teens—such as 13 on August 13, nine on August 14, and just one or two on August 15—far below the pre-February 2026 average of roughly 60 ships per day. Renewed attacks on commercial vessels, US warnings of stepped-up economic pressure and potential indefinite naval measures, and elevated war-risk insurance have prompted widespread avoidance by shipowners, with many opting to stay dark on AIS or reroute. These conditions reflect persistent security risks in a chokepoint handling a significant share of global oil and LNG flows, with limited evidence of near-term de-escalation ahead of the resolution window. Higher-volume buckets (50+) carry minimal odds as they would require a rapid return to sustained pre-crisis patterns not supported by current throughput or sentiment.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 17?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 17?
25-49 57%
<25 36%
50-74 4.0%
75-99 <1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 23, 2026
<25
36%
25-49
57%
50-74
4%
75-99
1%
100+
1%
25-49 57%
<25 36%
50-74 4.0%
75-99 <1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 23, 2026
<25
$1,381 ปริมาณ
36%
25-49
$942 ปริมาณ
57%
50-74
$230 ปริมาณ
4%
75-99
$222 ปริมาณ
1%
100+
$159 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran tensions and attacks on vessels have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at crisis lows, driving trader expectations toward 25-49 ships (57.5% implied probability) or fewer (35.5%) for the week of August 17.**
Recent data from tracking firms like Kpler, MarineTraffic, and Windward show daily crossings in the low single digits to mid-teens—such as 13 on August 13, nine on August 14, and just one or two on August 15—far below the pre-February 2026 average of roughly 60 ships per day. Renewed attacks on commercial vessels, US warnings of stepped-up economic pressure and potential indefinite naval measures, and elevated war-risk insurance have prompted widespread avoidance by shipowners, with many opting to stay dark on AIS or reroute.
These conditions reflect persistent security risks in a chokepoint handling a significant share of global oil and LNG flows, with limited evidence of near-term de-escalation ahead of the resolution window. Higher-volume buckets (50+) carry minimal odds as they would require a rapid return to sustained pre-crisis patterns not supported by current throughput or sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,934วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 23, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran tensions and attacks on vessels have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at crisis lows, driving trader expectations toward 25-49 ships (57.5% implied probability) or fewer (35.5%) for the week of August 17.**
Recent data from tracking firms like Kpler, MarineTraffic, and Windward show daily crossings in the low single digits to mid-teens—such as 13 on August 13, nine on August 14, and just one or two on August 15—far below the pre-February 2026 average of roughly 60 ships per day. Renewed attacks on commercial vessels, US warnings of stepped-up economic pressure and potential indefinite naval measures, and elevated war-risk insurance have prompted widespread avoidance by shipowners, with many opting to stay dark on AIS or reroute.
These conditions reflect persistent security risks in a chokepoint handling a significant share of global oil and LNG flows, with limited evidence of near-term de-escalation ahead of the resolution window. Higher-volume buckets (50+) carry minimal odds as they would require a rapid return to sustained pre-crisis patterns not supported by current throughput or sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,934วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 23, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing US-Iran tensions and attacks on vessels have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at crisis lows, driving trader expectations toward 25-49 ships (57.5% implied probability) or fewer (35.5%) for the week of August 17.** Recent data from tracking firms like Kpler, MarineTraffic, and Windward show daily crossings in the low single digits to mid-teens—such as 13 on August 13, nine on August 14, and just one or two on August 15—far below the pre-February 2026 average of roughly 60 ships per day. Renewed attacks on commercial vessels, US warnings of stepped-up economic pressure and potential indefinite naval measures, and elevated war-risk insurance have prompted widespread avoidance by shipowners, with many opting to stay dark on AIS or reroute. These conditions reflect persistent security risks in a chokepoint handling a significant share of global oil and LNG flows, with limited evidence of near-term de-escalation ahead of the resolution window. Higher-volume buckets (50+) carry minimal odds as they would require a rapid return to sustained pre-crisis patterns not supported by current throughput or sentiment.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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