Nicolás Maduro leads trader pricing for Venezuela’s head of state at the end of 2026 because US forces captured him in January but left the underlying Chavista institutional structure intact, with the Supreme Tribunal designating Vice President Delcy Rodríguez only as acting president under constitutional continuity provisions. No presidential election has occurred, and ongoing negotiations between the interim government and opposition focus on reforming the National Electoral Council and Supreme Court—steps analysts say will push any vote to late 2027 or later. US policy under Trump has prioritized oil-sector stabilization and security cooperation with Rodríguez over immediate transition, while opposition figures including María Corina Machado remain blocked from returning and contesting power. These factors sustain market consensus that formal recognition will still rest with Maduro or the current interim arrangement through year-end, despite Rodríguez’s public commitments to eventual elections.