Recent diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran, including canceled U.S. strikes and advancing talks via intermediaries like Oman on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and broader arrangements, has reinforced trader expectations against a ground invasion before 2027. Following initial U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and naval actions in early 2026, the administration has prioritized air and sea measures, sanctions, and negotiations over deploying conventional forces, citing Iran's terrain, population size, and the high costs of occupation. Low-level clashes continue amid nuclear and regional issues, yet the absence of mobilization for boots-on-the-ground operations aligns with the 82.5% implied probability for "No," reflecting the wisdom of crowds assessing limited escalation paths and institutional barriers to full invasion.