President Trump's rejection of Iran's latest ceasefire proposal on May 11, 2026—labeling it "garbage" and declaring the truce on "life support"—has intensified US-Iran tensions amid an ongoing naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and airstrikes that hit 70% of targeted sites, yet traders price "No" invasion at 72.5% implied probability before 2027, reflecting Pentagon emphasis on limited special operations raids over full-scale ground invasion. The US military buildup, largest since 2003 Iraq, includes over 10,000 additional troops deployed in April, but stalled nuclear diplomacy—bolstered by recent progress signals from Vice President Vance and Pakistan-mediated talks—prioritizes regime pressure without costly occupation. Upcoming Iranian responses and potential Chinese mediation could tip odds in this closely watched standoff.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วสหรัฐฯจะรุกรานอิหร่านก่อนปี 2027 หรือไม่?
สหรัฐฯจะรุกรานอิหร่านก่อนปี 2027 หรือไม่?
ใช่
$28,075,847 ปริมาณ
$28,075,847 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
ใช่
$28,075,847 ปริมาณ
$28,075,847 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.President Trump's rejection of Iran's latest ceasefire proposal on May 11, 2026—labeling it "garbage" and declaring the truce on "life support"—has intensified US-Iran tensions amid an ongoing naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and airstrikes that hit 70% of targeted sites, yet traders price "No" invasion at 72.5% implied probability before 2027, reflecting Pentagon emphasis on limited special operations raids over full-scale ground invasion. The US military buildup, largest since 2003 Iraq, includes over 10,000 additional troops deployed in April, but stalled nuclear diplomacy—bolstered by recent progress signals from Vice President Vance and Pakistan-mediated talks—prioritizes regime pressure without costly occupation. Upcoming Iranian responses and potential Chinese mediation could tip odds in this closely watched standoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$28,075,847วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.President Trump's rejection of Iran's latest ceasefire proposal on May 11, 2026—labeling it "garbage" and declaring the truce on "life support"—has intensified US-Iran tensions amid an ongoing naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and airstrikes that hit 70% of targeted sites, yet traders price "No" invasion at 72.5% implied probability before 2027, reflecting Pentagon emphasis on limited special operations raids over full-scale ground invasion. The US military buildup, largest since 2003 Iraq, includes over 10,000 additional troops deployed in April, but stalled nuclear diplomacy—bolstered by recent progress signals from Vice President Vance and Pakistan-mediated talks—prioritizes regime pressure without costly occupation. Upcoming Iranian responses and potential Chinese mediation could tip odds in this closely watched standoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$28,075,847วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's rejection of Iran's latest ceasefire proposal on May 11, 2026—labeling it "garbage" and declaring the truce on "life support"—has intensified US-Iran tensions amid an ongoing naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and airstrikes that hit 70% of targeted sites, yet traders price "No" invasion at 72.5% implied probability before 2027, reflecting Pentagon emphasis on limited special operations raids over full-scale ground invasion. The US military buildup, largest since 2003 Iraq, includes over 10,000 additional troops deployed in April, but stalled nuclear diplomacy—bolstered by recent progress signals from Vice President Vance and Pakistan-mediated talks—prioritizes regime pressure without costly occupation. Upcoming Iranian responses and potential Chinese mediation could tip odds in this closely watched standoff.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย