**Ongoing regional military tensions from the US-Israel-Iran conflict that began with strikes on February 28, 2026, remain the dominant factor shaping trader views on any full Iranian airspace closure.** Iran imposed a nationwide closure at the outset, followed by phased partial reopenings (including eastern routes in April and further adjustments later in the year), but authorities have issued only targeted NOTAMs for military exercises, such as live-fire drills near the Strait of Hormuz, rather than a blanket shutdown. International regulators continue to drive effective avoidance: the FAA maintains a prohibition through October 2027, while EASA’s CZIB for Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon is scheduled for review on November 16, 2026. GPS interference has declined from earlier peaks but persists in monitored areas. Escalation risks from missile activity, air-defense alerts, or new strikes could prompt renewed restrictions, yet current patterns show Iranian authorities managing airspace with limited, localized measures instead of comprehensive closure. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, upcoming regulatory bulletins, and any fresh military developments within the resolution window for shifts in implied probabilities.