Diplomatic momentum has built around Qatar-mediated talks between the US and Iran, with President Trump citing positive closed-door discussions and declaring the eight-month conflict “effectively” over while holding off on new strikes. US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, emphasize that economic sanctions and the naval blockade are achieving objectives without resuming major combat operations. Iran continues to insist on its seven conditions—including lifting the US port blockade, unfreezing assets, and easing oil sanctions—before reopening the Strait of Hormuz within two days and advancing nuclear talks. Washington has rejected these terms as unrealistic, and Iranian officials deny active negotiations while maintaining a deterrence posture. These dynamics, set against recent US midterm election results and Gulf allies’ calls for de-escalation, shape trader assessments of when or whether an effective two-week pause in hostilities can begin.