Ongoing Iranian strikes on Omani ports and territorial waters since March 2026 form the core driver of trader positioning in this market, tied to the broader Iran-US conflict and Strait of Hormuz crisis. Recent attacks have targeted facilities at Duqm, Salalah, and Sohar, which support US operations, while IRGC forces have struck nearby tankers and issued expanded threat zones. Countervailing diplomacy, including the October 11 leaders’ call reaffirming bilateral consultations and joint Hormuz navigation talks with Oman, has tempered escalation risks. Scheduled technical negotiations on maritime corridors and mine clearance could influence further military actions, alongside any shifts in US blockade enforcement or Iranian responses to regional shipping incidents.