Traders price no Hormuz Agreement before the midterms at 99.3% because no verifiable diplomatic breakthroughs or official statements have emerged to suggest rapid progress on energy security and sanctions issues tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing regional tensions and standard timelines for multilateral negotiations continue to limit near-term resolution, consistent with historical patterns of extended talks on comparable matters. The minimal odds attached to either party winning the Senate under an agreement reflect this assessment of low probability. Late developments such as an unexpected bilateral statement or summit within the resolution window remain the primary factors that could still shift the implied probabilities.