The Islamic Republic of Iran has maintained institutional continuity after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with Mojtaba Khamenei selected by the Assembly of Experts in March to succeed him. Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former shah, has advocated from abroad for a secular democratic transition and positioned himself as a potential interim figure, yet he holds no formal role, military backing, or verified domestic authority inside the country. Recent reporting describes his leadership bid as faltering amid the regime's post-conflict consolidation and tightened internal controls. Traders assign a 96.8% probability to "No" because the theocratic system's survival and succession process demonstrate structural barriers to an external opposition figure assuming power by year-end. Late developments such as sustained mass protests, elite defections, or renewed external pressure could theoretically reopen pathways, though none have materialized in the current environment.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วReza Pahlavi จะเป็นผู้นำอิหร่านในปี 2026 หรือไม่?
Reza Pahlavi จะเป็นผู้นำอิหร่านในปี 2026 หรือไม่?
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3% โอกาส
$11,699,656 ปริมาณ
$11,699,656 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
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3% โอกาส
$11,699,656 ปริมาณ
$11,699,656 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has maintained institutional continuity after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with Mojtaba Khamenei selected by the Assembly of Experts in March to succeed him. Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former shah, has advocated from abroad for a secular democratic transition and positioned himself as a potential interim figure, yet he holds no formal role, military backing, or verified domestic authority inside the country. Recent reporting describes his leadership bid as faltering amid the regime's post-conflict consolidation and tightened internal controls. Traders assign a 96.8% probability to "No" because the theocratic system's survival and succession process demonstrate structural barriers to an external opposition figure assuming power by year-end. Late developments such as sustained mass protests, elite defections, or renewed external pressure could theoretically reopen pathways, though none have materialized in the current environment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,699,656วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has maintained institutional continuity after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with Mojtaba Khamenei selected by the Assembly of Experts in March to succeed him. Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former shah, has advocated from abroad for a secular democratic transition and positioned himself as a potential interim figure, yet he holds no formal role, military backing, or verified domestic authority inside the country. Recent reporting describes his leadership bid as faltering amid the regime's post-conflict consolidation and tightened internal controls. Traders assign a 96.8% probability to "No" because the theocratic system's survival and succession process demonstrate structural barriers to an external opposition figure assuming power by year-end. Late developments such as sustained mass protests, elite defections, or renewed external pressure could theoretically reopen pathways, though none have materialized in the current environment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,699,656วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic of Iran has maintained institutional continuity after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with Mojtaba Khamenei selected by the Assembly of Experts in March to succeed him. Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former shah, has advocated from abroad for a secular democratic transition and positioned himself as a potential interim figure, yet he holds no formal role, military backing, or verified domestic authority inside the country. Recent reporting describes his leadership bid as faltering amid the regime's post-conflict consolidation and tightened internal controls. Traders assign a 96.8% probability to "No" because the theocratic system's survival and succession process demonstrate structural barriers to an external opposition figure assuming power by year-end. Late developments such as sustained mass protests, elite defections, or renewed external pressure could theoretically reopen pathways, though none have materialized in the current environment.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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