Russia maintains its long-standing moratorium on nuclear explosive testing, with Kremlin officials repeatedly denying any secret detonations amid U.S. arms-control pressure following New START's expiration. Recent Russian military activities center on scheduled non-explosive drills, including Yasen-M submarine launches of conventional cruise missiles and strategic nuclear forces exercises involving ICBMs and bombers that simulate command procedures without actual warhead detonations. No verified nuclear test events or official announcements have occurred in 2026, keeping trader consensus on low probabilities for near-term resolution dates. Key factors include diplomatic incentives to avoid escalation, CTBT norms, and the distinction between missile or subcritical activities and full-yield tests that would trigger market resolution.