**Ongoing U.S.-mediated diplomacy has produced short-term pauses and prisoner exchanges but no durable Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement, as core disputes over territorial control of four claimed regions, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s future alignment remain unresolved.** As of mid-August 2026, fresh Ukrainian proposals delivered to U.S. envoys have not yet prompted reciprocal Russian concessions, while Moscow continues to condition any settlement on maximalist demands and cites upcoming parliamentary elections as a factor in mobilization decisions. Earlier 2026 truces (Orthodox Easter, Victory Day) and Geneva talks yielded limited POW swaps and localized pauses but collapsed amid mutual violations and stalled progress on monitoring mechanisms. European initiatives emphasizing front-line ceasefires and Western security ties have been rejected by Russia, leaving battlefield attrition and deep-strike exchanges as the dominant dynamic. Traders assess the probability of a formal agreement by year-end in light of these entrenched positions and the absence of a breakthrough framework.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$5,894,715 ปริมาณ
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
11%
August 31
2%
December 31
26%
$5,894,715 ปริมาณ
October 31
$846,168 ปริมาณ
11%
August 31
$373,997 ปริมาณ
2%
December 31
$2,137,218 ปริมาณ
26%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing U.S.-mediated diplomacy has produced short-term pauses and prisoner exchanges but no durable Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement, as core disputes over territorial control of four claimed regions, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s future alignment remain unresolved.** As of mid-August 2026, fresh Ukrainian proposals delivered to U.S. envoys have not yet prompted reciprocal Russian concessions, while Moscow continues to condition any settlement on maximalist demands and cites upcoming parliamentary elections as a factor in mobilization decisions. Earlier 2026 truces (Orthodox Easter, Victory Day) and Geneva talks yielded limited POW swaps and localized pauses but collapsed amid mutual violations and stalled progress on monitoring mechanisms. European initiatives emphasizing front-line ceasefires and Western security ties have been rejected by Russia, leaving battlefield attrition and deep-strike exchanges as the dominant dynamic. Traders assess the probability of a formal agreement by year-end in light of these entrenched positions and the absence of a breakthrough framework.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,894,715วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing U.S.-mediated diplomacy has produced short-term pauses and prisoner exchanges but no durable Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement, as core disputes over territorial control of four claimed regions, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s future alignment remain unresolved.** As of mid-August 2026, fresh Ukrainian proposals delivered to U.S. envoys have not yet prompted reciprocal Russian concessions, while Moscow continues to condition any settlement on maximalist demands and cites upcoming parliamentary elections as a factor in mobilization decisions. Earlier 2026 truces (Orthodox Easter, Victory Day) and Geneva talks yielded limited POW swaps and localized pauses but collapsed amid mutual violations and stalled progress on monitoring mechanisms. European initiatives emphasizing front-line ceasefires and Western security ties have been rejected by Russia, leaving battlefield attrition and deep-strike exchanges as the dominant dynamic. Traders assess the probability of a formal agreement by year-end in light of these entrenched positions and the absence of a breakthrough framework.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,894,715วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing U.S.-mediated diplomacy has produced short-term pauses and prisoner exchanges but no durable Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement, as core disputes over territorial control of four claimed regions, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s future alignment remain unresolved.** As of mid-August 2026, fresh Ukrainian proposals delivered to U.S. envoys have not yet prompted reciprocal Russian concessions, while Moscow continues to condition any settlement on maximalist demands and cites upcoming parliamentary elections as a factor in mobilization decisions. Earlier 2026 truces (Orthodox Easter, Victory Day) and Geneva talks yielded limited POW swaps and localized pauses but collapsed amid mutual violations and stalled progress on monitoring mechanisms. European initiatives emphasizing front-line ceasefires and Western security ties have been rejected by Russia, leaving battlefield attrition and deep-strike exchanges as the dominant dynamic. Traders assess the probability of a formal agreement by year-end in light of these entrenched positions and the absence of a breakthrough framework.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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