Russia and Ukraine have conducted only limited, temporary ceasefires in 2026, including a U.S.-brokered three-day pause in May tied to prisoner exchanges, amid repeated accusations of violations and continued strikes. Multiple rounds of U.S.-mediated talks earlier in the year ended without agreement on core issues such as territorial control, security guarantees, and monitoring mechanisms. As of mid-August, the Kremlin has stated no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations while Ukraine has shared new proposals with U.S. officials aimed at pressuring Moscow. Persistent battlefield activity, including Ukrainian long-range strikes and Russian advances, alongside unresolved demands from both sides, has kept trader-implied odds for a formal ceasefire agreement by year-end low, reflecting the entrenched stalemate and lack of breakthrough signals.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$5,910,866 ปริมาณ
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
11%
August 31
3%
December 31
27%
$5,910,866 ปริมาณ
October 31
$846,502 ปริมาณ
11%
August 31
$388,447 ปริมาณ
3%
December 31
$2,138,585 ปริมาณ
27%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Russia and Ukraine have conducted only limited, temporary ceasefires in 2026, including a U.S.-brokered three-day pause in May tied to prisoner exchanges, amid repeated accusations of violations and continued strikes. Multiple rounds of U.S.-mediated talks earlier in the year ended without agreement on core issues such as territorial control, security guarantees, and monitoring mechanisms. As of mid-August, the Kremlin has stated no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations while Ukraine has shared new proposals with U.S. officials aimed at pressuring Moscow. Persistent battlefield activity, including Ukrainian long-range strikes and Russian advances, alongside unresolved demands from both sides, has kept trader-implied odds for a formal ceasefire agreement by year-end low, reflecting the entrenched stalemate and lack of breakthrough signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,910,866วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Russia and Ukraine have conducted only limited, temporary ceasefires in 2026, including a U.S.-brokered three-day pause in May tied to prisoner exchanges, amid repeated accusations of violations and continued strikes. Multiple rounds of U.S.-mediated talks earlier in the year ended without agreement on core issues such as territorial control, security guarantees, and monitoring mechanisms. As of mid-August, the Kremlin has stated no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations while Ukraine has shared new proposals with U.S. officials aimed at pressuring Moscow. Persistent battlefield activity, including Ukrainian long-range strikes and Russian advances, alongside unresolved demands from both sides, has kept trader-implied odds for a formal ceasefire agreement by year-end low, reflecting the entrenched stalemate and lack of breakthrough signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,910,866วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia and Ukraine have conducted only limited, temporary ceasefires in 2026, including a U.S.-brokered three-day pause in May tied to prisoner exchanges, amid repeated accusations of violations and continued strikes. Multiple rounds of U.S.-mediated talks earlier in the year ended without agreement on core issues such as territorial control, security guarantees, and monitoring mechanisms. As of mid-August, the Kremlin has stated no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations while Ukraine has shared new proposals with U.S. officials aimed at pressuring Moscow. Persistent battlefield activity, including Ukrainian long-range strikes and Russian advances, alongside unresolved demands from both sides, has kept trader-implied odds for a formal ceasefire agreement by year-end low, reflecting the entrenched stalemate and lack of breakthrough signals.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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