Traders assign a 98.9% probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by August 31 due to the absence of any recent diplomatic breakthrough despite sustained U.S. mediation. Core disputes over territorial control in Donbas and other regions, Ukrainian security guarantees, and limits on future alliances remain unresolved following multiple 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva that yielded only prisoner exchanges. Ongoing military operations, including Ukrainian drone strikes and Russian advances, have reinforced positions on both sides, while European proposals for monitored ceasefires have drawn limited engagement. The short remaining window leaves insufficient time for the complex negotiations, ratification steps, or concessions needed to bridge gaps. A sudden shift in battlefield conditions, high-level bilateral concessions, or new U.S. pressure could still alter the trajectory before month-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$228,775 ปริมาณ
$228,775 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
$228,775 ปริมาณ
$228,775 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 98.9% probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by August 31 due to the absence of any recent diplomatic breakthrough despite sustained U.S. mediation. Core disputes over territorial control in Donbas and other regions, Ukrainian security guarantees, and limits on future alliances remain unresolved following multiple 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva that yielded only prisoner exchanges. Ongoing military operations, including Ukrainian drone strikes and Russian advances, have reinforced positions on both sides, while European proposals for monitored ceasefires have drawn limited engagement. The short remaining window leaves insufficient time for the complex negotiations, ratification steps, or concessions needed to bridge gaps. A sudden shift in battlefield conditions, high-level bilateral concessions, or new U.S. pressure could still alter the trajectory before month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$228,775วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 98.9% probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by August 31 due to the absence of any recent diplomatic breakthrough despite sustained U.S. mediation. Core disputes over territorial control in Donbas and other regions, Ukrainian security guarantees, and limits on future alliances remain unresolved following multiple 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva that yielded only prisoner exchanges. Ongoing military operations, including Ukrainian drone strikes and Russian advances, have reinforced positions on both sides, while European proposals for monitored ceasefires have drawn limited engagement. The short remaining window leaves insufficient time for the complex negotiations, ratification steps, or concessions needed to bridge gaps. A sudden shift in battlefield conditions, high-level bilateral concessions, or new U.S. pressure could still alter the trajectory before month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$228,775วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98.9% probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by August 31 due to the absence of any recent diplomatic breakthrough despite sustained U.S. mediation. Core disputes over territorial control in Donbas and other regions, Ukrainian security guarantees, and limits on future alliances remain unresolved following multiple 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva that yielded only prisoner exchanges. Ongoing military operations, including Ukrainian drone strikes and Russian advances, have reinforced positions on both sides, while European proposals for monitored ceasefires have drawn limited engagement. The short remaining window leaves insufficient time for the complex negotiations, ratification steps, or concessions needed to bridge gaps. A sudden shift in battlefield conditions, high-level bilateral concessions, or new U.S. pressure could still alter the trajectory before month-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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