Ongoing Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and continued battlefield operations into early October 2026 underscore the absence of any comprehensive ceasefire or territorial settlement, sustaining trader expectations that a full peace agreement will not materialize before 2027. Recent US-mediated discussions, including revised frameworks presented in Geneva and proposed trilateral technical talks in the UAE, have produced limited interest in narrower measures such as mutual halts on energy or grain infrastructure attacks, yet Moscow has reiterated demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions, neutrality guarantees, and force reductions that Kyiv rejects. Ukrainian counterstrikes and incremental frontline adjustments have not altered the underlying impasse, while Russian statements emphasize prioritizing security interests over rapid de-escalation. These factors align with the 91% implied probability against a deal by the end of 2026.