Ukraine’s ongoing martial law, most recently extended in October 2026 until late January 2027, combined with constitutional provisions allowing the incumbent to remain in office until a successor assumes power, continues to block presidential elections and underpins trader expectations that Volodymyr Zelenskyy will retain the presidency through the end of 2026. Recent statements from Zelenskyy linking any vote to a verified ceasefire have not altered the security and logistical barriers, while polls show sustained public opposition to wartime balloting. This institutional continuity and active conflict dynamics drive the 97.3 percent “No” consensus as skin-in-the-game recognition of limited near-term pathways for removal. A rapid diplomatic agreement producing a stable ceasefire or an unforeseen leadership transition could still shift the outcome before year-end, though both remain low-probability events given current military and political conditions.