Ongoing Russian drone and missile strikes on Kyiv in mid-May 2026, which followed the collapse of a brief U.S.-brokered ceasefire, have reinforced Ukraine’s martial law regime and blocked any near-term presidential vote. Parliament’s April 2026 extension of both martial law and mobilization until early August maintains the constitutional prohibition on national elections during wartime, with President Zelenskyy publicly conditioning any ballot on a durable ceasefire plus security guarantees. No credible resignation, impeachment, or succession signals have emerged, and trader pricing at 84.5 percent for Zelenskyy remaining in office through December 2026 reflects the low likelihood that fighting ends soon enough for a transition.