Erdoğan’s current presidential term runs through 2028 under Turkey’s executive system, and senior AKP officials confirmed in September 2026 that parliament could call an early vote in April 2028 to enable his candidacy for a further term. The ruling alliance maintains a working majority, while the main opposition remains fragmented after court actions, leadership changes, and arrests of prominent figures such as Istanbul’s former mayor. Recent parliamentary reopening focused on constitutional reform and the “Terror-Free Türkiye” process rather than any challenge to the president’s position. With roughly three months remaining until the market’s cutoff, traders see no plausible near-term mechanism—constitutional, electoral, or political—for removal. Late developments such as a sudden health event, unprecedented coalition fracture, or mass unrest could theoretically shift the outlook, though none are evident in current reporting.