Traders assign a 96.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, primarily because the narrow remaining window precludes the observable large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, and command adjustments required for such an operation. Recent months show only routine gray-zone activity, including moderated air defense identification zone incursions, expanded China Coast Guard patrols in the Taiwan Strait and east of the island, and periodic live-fire drills, alongside Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises and incremental defense enhancements. U.S. intelligence assessments earlier in 2026 downgraded near-term risks, while People’s Liberation Army leadership changes have further limited readiness. A sudden major cross-strait incident, rapid U.S. policy shift, or unforeseen leadership development could still alter trajectories before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วจีนจะบุกไต้หวันภายในสิ้นปี 2026 หรือไม่?
จีนจะบุกไต้หวันภายในสิ้นปี 2026 หรือไม่?
ใช่
$39,720,028 ปริมาณ
$39,720,028 ปริมาณ
ใช่
$39,720,028 ปริมาณ
$39,720,028 ปริมาณ
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign a 96.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, primarily because the narrow remaining window precludes the observable large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, and command adjustments required for such an operation. Recent months show only routine gray-zone activity, including moderated air defense identification zone incursions, expanded China Coast Guard patrols in the Taiwan Strait and east of the island, and periodic live-fire drills, alongside Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises and incremental defense enhancements. U.S. intelligence assessments earlier in 2026 downgraded near-term risks, while People’s Liberation Army leadership changes have further limited readiness. A sudden major cross-strait incident, rapid U.S. policy shift, or unforeseen leadership development could still alter trajectories before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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