Traders assign a 98% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026, reflecting the absence of any verifiable major military mobilization or direct escalation signals in recent months. Diplomatic channels remain active through back-channel communications and multilateral forums, while economic interdependence continues to constrain abrupt action. Historical patterns of incremental pressure rather than sudden large-scale operations further support this consensus. With only weeks remaining in the resolution window, realistic shifts would require an unforeseen crisis such as a rapid breakdown in cross-strait talks or an unanticipated external trigger, though current indicators show no such developments materializing.