Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments from March 2026 stating China is unlikely to attempt an invasion even in 2027 due to military unreadiness and economic constraints. Recent PLA naval deployments and exercises around the Taiwan Strait remain routine, with no observed indicators of amphibious assault preparations amid ongoing U.S. arms sales and allied deterrence efforts like Balikatan drills. At the May 14 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, President Xi warned of potential conflict over Taiwan but prioritized diplomacy on trade and Iran, signaling de-escalation preferences despite hybrid gray-zone tactics. Late-breaking escalations, such as a blockade or major crisis, could shift odds, but current stability dominates.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วจีนจะบุกไต้หวันภายในสิ้นปี 2026 หรือไม่?
จีนจะบุกไต้หวันภายในสิ้นปี 2026 หรือไม่?
ใช่
$23,356,221 ปริมาณ
$23,356,221 ปริมาณ
ใช่
$23,356,221 ปริมาณ
$23,356,221 ปริมาณ
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments from March 2026 stating China is unlikely to attempt an invasion even in 2027 due to military unreadiness and economic constraints. Recent PLA naval deployments and exercises around the Taiwan Strait remain routine, with no observed indicators of amphibious assault preparations amid ongoing U.S. arms sales and allied deterrence efforts like Balikatan drills. At the May 14 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, President Xi warned of potential conflict over Taiwan but prioritized diplomacy on trade and Iran, signaling de-escalation preferences despite hybrid gray-zone tactics. Late-breaking escalations, such as a blockade or major crisis, could shift odds, but current stability dominates.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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