Traders assign a 98.2 percent probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan before the end of 2026 primarily because sustained gray-zone coercion—such as air defense identification zone incursions, coast guard patrols, and cyberattacks—has continued without escalation to large-scale amphibious preparations or blockade rehearsals near the island in recent months. U.S. assessments indicate that People’s Liberation Army readiness shortfalls and Beijing’s interest in Taiwan’s 2028 elections further reduce near-term incentives for force. Xi Jinping’s September 2026 Washington discussions reinforced diplomatic messaging over military action. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a major Taiwanese political provocation, leadership miscalculation, or sudden external intervention that compresses Beijing’s preferred timeline.