Recent high-level US-China diplomatic engagement, including the May 13–15 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, has reinforced trader expectations that Beijing will continue prioritizing gray-zone coercion over a direct military clash with Taiwan before 2027. US intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders lack firm plans for a near-term invasion, citing the high risks of amphibious operations and potential US intervention. Ongoing PLA air incursions and coast guard activity near Kinmen and Penghu islands reflect sustained pressure campaigns rather than escalation toward open conflict. Internal Chinese military purges and Taiwan’s legislative delays on supplemental defense spending further constrain rapid shifts, though scheduled US arms package deliberations and cross-strait rhetoric remain key variables that could alter the current 91.5% implied probability against a clash.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใช่
$1,792,828 ปริมาณ
$1,792,828 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
ใช่
$1,792,828 ปริมาณ
$1,792,828 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent high-level US-China diplomatic engagement, including the May 13–15 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, has reinforced trader expectations that Beijing will continue prioritizing gray-zone coercion over a direct military clash with Taiwan before 2027. US intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders lack firm plans for a near-term invasion, citing the high risks of amphibious operations and potential US intervention. Ongoing PLA air incursions and coast guard activity near Kinmen and Penghu islands reflect sustained pressure campaigns rather than escalation toward open conflict. Internal Chinese military purges and Taiwan’s legislative delays on supplemental defense spending further constrain rapid shifts, though scheduled US arms package deliberations and cross-strait rhetoric remain key variables that could alter the current 91.5% implied probability against a clash.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,792,828วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent high-level US-China diplomatic engagement, including the May 13–15 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, has reinforced trader expectations that Beijing will continue prioritizing gray-zone coercion over a direct military clash with Taiwan before 2027. US intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders lack firm plans for a near-term invasion, citing the high risks of amphibious operations and potential US intervention. Ongoing PLA air incursions and coast guard activity near Kinmen and Penghu islands reflect sustained pressure campaigns rather than escalation toward open conflict. Internal Chinese military purges and Taiwan’s legislative delays on supplemental defense spending further constrain rapid shifts, though scheduled US arms package deliberations and cross-strait rhetoric remain key variables that could alter the current 91.5% implied probability against a clash.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,792,828วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent high-level US-China diplomatic engagement, including the May 13–15 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, has reinforced trader expectations that Beijing will continue prioritizing gray-zone coercion over a direct military clash with Taiwan before 2027. US intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders lack firm plans for a near-term invasion, citing the high risks of amphibious operations and potential US intervention. Ongoing PLA air incursions and coast guard activity near Kinmen and Penghu islands reflect sustained pressure campaigns rather than escalation toward open conflict. Internal Chinese military purges and Taiwan’s legislative delays on supplemental defense spending further constrain rapid shifts, though scheduled US arms package deliberations and cross-strait rhetoric remain key variables that could alter the current 91.5% implied probability against a clash.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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