Traders assign near-certain probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the September 30, 2026 deadline due to the absence of any full-scale amphibious assault or decisive military escalation across the strait during the period. Recent developments, including the late-September Trump-Xi summit where Taiwan featured in talks without policy shifts or concessions enabling force, alongside Beijing’s emphasis on economic targets and opposition to independence through diplomatic channels, reinforced the status quo. Taiwan accelerated drone, missile, and coastal defenses while conducting joint exercises, signaling resilience without provoking kinetic conflict. High operational, economic, and alliance risks for Beijing, combined with ongoing gray-zone pressure rather than invasion preparations reaching critical mass, aligned with the consensus. Scenarios that could have altered the outcome before resolution included sudden U.S. policy reversals on arms or visits, unexpected Taiwanese independence moves, or rapid PLA force posture changes overriding cost calculations.