Traders assign a 99.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale troop movements, amphibious exercises, or air and naval mobilizations that would precede such an operation. Cross-strait tensions remain elevated but stable, with routine military activity on both sides and continued diplomatic engagement through unofficial channels. Economic interdependence, U.S. security commitments, and allied naval presence in the region continue to shape deterrence dynamics. An outcome shift would require rapid escalation from a major incident, such as a direct clash in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea, or an abrupt policy reversal by Beijing, though no such triggers have materialized in recent weeks.