Recent diplomatic engagements and U.S. intelligence assessments have reinforced trader expectations that China will not launch an invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027. A May 2026 summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping highlighted Taiwan as a core issue without producing escalation signals, while a March 2026 U.S. intelligence report concluded Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for military action in 2027. Taiwan has responded by expanding defense budgets, extending conscription, and accelerating drone production to bolster deterrence. Beijing continues emphasizing political and electoral pathways, including influence operations tied to Taiwan’s 2028 vote, alongside ongoing military readiness drills that stop short of invasion preparations. These factors sustain the current market pricing around an 82.5% probability of no invasion.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$576,742 ปริมาณ
$576,742 ปริมาณ
$576,742 ปริมาณ
$576,742 ปริมาณ
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Recent diplomatic engagements and U.S. intelligence assessments have reinforced trader expectations that China will not launch an invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027. A May 2026 summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping highlighted Taiwan as a core issue without producing escalation signals, while a March 2026 U.S. intelligence report concluded Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for military action in 2027. Taiwan has responded by expanding defense budgets, extending conscription, and accelerating drone production to bolster deterrence. Beijing continues emphasizing political and electoral pathways, including influence operations tied to Taiwan’s 2028 vote, alongside ongoing military readiness drills that stop short of invasion preparations. These factors sustain the current market pricing around an 82.5% probability of no invasion.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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