Negotiations over Hamas disarmament remain stalled amid sharp disagreements on sequencing with Israel. Hamas has conditionally endorsed elements of the US-backed 15-point roadmap but insists on amendments to the disarmament clause, phased implementation only after Israeli approval and withdrawal from Gaza, plus international guarantees. Israeli officials reject this framework, maintaining that full demilitarization must precede any further pullback and citing intelligence that Hamas is rebuilding forces, restoring tunnel networks, and shows no intention of surrendering weapons voluntarily. Recent direct talks involving US envoy Jared Kushner and Hamas leaders in Cairo have failed to resolve the impasse, while sporadic strikes continue. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched positions and low likelihood of a formal Hamas commitment by year-end.