The primary driver of trader sentiment on an Israel-Hamas ceasefire Phase II remains the impasse over sequencing in the US-backed 15-point plan, with Israel insisting on full Hamas disarmament before further withdrawals or reconstruction, while Hamas conditions any arms handover on simultaneous Israeli steps and international guarantees. A November 9 Board of Peace statement highlighted Israeli delays in authorizing winter humanitarian supplies and NCAG entry into Gaza as impeding progress, while reiterating pressure on Hamas to relinquish weapons and governing authority. Low-level ceasefire violations continue on both sides amid restricted aid flows and expanded Israeli territorial control beyond the original Yellow Line. Upcoming diplomatic efforts in Cairo and potential shifts following Israel's recent elections could influence timelines, though structural disagreements over demilitarization and governance transfer have kept Phase II implementation stalled for months.