Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.1% for a US ally—defined as NATO members or Major Non-NATO Allies like Japan, South Korea, and Poland—acquiring full-control nuclear weapons before 2027, reflecting the absence of verified programs despite regional threats. Recent reaffirmations anchor this view: South Korea's top diplomat upheld nonproliferation commitments on April 1 amid North Korean missile tests; Japan confirmed non-nuclear principles in its May 1 policy review; Poland's April 20 talks with France focused on exploratory nuclear cooperation via sharing, not independent arsenals. US extended deterrence assurances, including accelerated Sentinel ICBM testing, reinforce NPT adherence and diminish breakout incentives, with technical barriers to operational possession by year-end maintaining low risk.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.1% for a US ally—defined as NATO members or Major Non-NATO Allies like Japan, South Korea, and Poland—acquiring full-control nuclear weapons before 2027, reflecting the absence of verified programs despite regional threats. Recent reaffirmations anchor this view: South Korea's top diplomat upheld nonproliferation commitments on April 1 amid North Korean missile tests; Japan confirmed non-nuclear principles in its May 1 policy review; Poland's April 20 talks with France focused on exploratory nuclear cooperation via sharing, not independent arsenals. US extended deterrence assurances, including accelerated Sentinel ICBM testing, reinforce NPT adherence and diminish breakout incentives, with technical barriers to operational possession by year-end maintaining low risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,747วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.1% for a US ally—defined as NATO members or Major Non-NATO Allies like Japan, South Korea, and Poland—acquiring full-control nuclear weapons before 2027, reflecting the absence of verified programs despite regional threats. Recent reaffirmations anchor this view: South Korea's top diplomat upheld nonproliferation commitments on April 1 amid North Korean missile tests; Japan confirmed non-nuclear principles in its May 1 policy review; Poland's April 20 talks with France focused on exploratory nuclear cooperation via sharing, not independent arsenals. US extended deterrence assurances, including accelerated Sentinel ICBM testing, reinforce NPT adherence and diminish breakout incentives, with technical barriers to operational possession by year-end maintaining low risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,747วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.1% for a US ally—defined as NATO members or Major Non-NATO Allies like Japan, South Korea, and Poland—acquiring full-control nuclear weapons before 2027, reflecting the absence of verified programs despite regional threats. Recent reaffirmations anchor this view: South Korea's top diplomat upheld nonproliferation commitments on April 1 amid North Korean missile tests; Japan confirmed non-nuclear principles in its May 1 policy review; Poland's April 20 talks with France focused on exploratory nuclear cooperation via sharing, not independent arsenals. US extended deterrence assurances, including accelerated Sentinel ICBM testing, reinforce NPT adherence and diminish breakout incentives, with technical barriers to operational possession by year-end maintaining low risk.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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