US allies maintain firm commitments to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and extended deterrence arrangements with Washington, with no verified weapons programs underway among non-nuclear NATO members or major non-NATO allies such as South Korea and Japan. Governments in Seoul and Tokyo have repeatedly reaffirmed opposition to independent nuclear arsenals, favoring strengthened consultations and conventional capabilities instead, even as public debate persists over North Korean threats. Technical timelines for uranium enrichment, warhead fabrication, and delivery systems far exceed the remaining window through 2026, while alliance agreements restrict proliferation-sensitive technologies. Trader consensus at 95.4% for “No” reflects these structural barriers; shifts could occur only through abrupt policy reversals or undisclosed advances, both viewed as low-probability before year-end.