Ongoing US-mediated diplomatic efforts have produced plans for technical-level trilateral talks involving Ukrainian, Russian, and American negotiators in Abu Dhabi around mid-November 2026, yet these remain at the advisor stage without firm commitments or timelines for a direct leaders’ meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin. Deep divisions persist over territorial control, security guarantees, NATO membership, and postwar arrangements, with both sides conditioning higher-level engagement on prior progress at lower levels. Putin has historically required substantive agreements before any presidential summit, while Zelenskyy has expressed hope that technical rounds could open the path to one. This pattern of stalled leader-level diplomacy, reinforced by battlefield realities and procedural hurdles, underpins trader consensus on the low likelihood of a Zelenskyy-Putin encounter before 2027. A verified breakthrough in the upcoming Abu Dhabi process or an unexpected summit at a multilateral forum could still shift probabilities.