Ongoing military operations and entrenched positions on territorial control, neutrality, and security guarantees have kept direct Putin-Zelenskyy encounters off the table, supporting the dominant trader view that no leaders-level meeting will occur by late 2027. Recent US diplomatic efforts to arrange trilateral technical talks by October, potentially in the UAE, reflect renewed but limited momentum after earlier stalls, with both sides signaling openness yet conditioning progress on their core demands. Putin has repeatedly favored Moscow or deferred to Russian terms, while Zelenskyy seeks neutral venues and reciprocal steps such as energy infrastructure protections. These dynamics, combined with persistent battlefield activity and procedural hurdles to high-level summits, sustain the market's emphasis on delayed or absent direct engagement.