Ongoing hostilities and stalled Russia-Ukraine negotiations through mid-2026 have left no ceasefire or framework agreement in place that could trigger a Ukrainian referendum this year. Divergent positions on territorial concessions, security guarantees, and implementation timelines have repeatedly blocked progress, as reflected in statements from both governments and failed mediation efforts. Ukrainian leadership has indicated major compromises would require public approval yet face domestic resistance, while the remaining months before 2027 offer limited scope for organizing a vote under current conditions. Trader consensus at 95.5% on "No" aligns with this impasse, though a rapid diplomatic breakthrough or externally imposed deal could still enable a referendum before year-end.