This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Russia’s ongoing campaign in Ukraine, which has left Moscow controlling roughly one-fifth of the territory as of mid-2026, continues to shape assessments of direct confrontation risks with NATO. Russian officials have issued repeated warnings against NATO forces or bases in Ukraine while conducting hybrid probes, including repeated airspace incursions from Belarus into Poland and Lithuania. Western intelligence assessments highlight elevated concerns over both inadvertent and deliberate escalation, yet note that Russian forces remain heavily committed in Ukraine and show limited capacity for simultaneous large-scale operations against alliance members. Diplomatic efforts, including recent U.S.-Russia contacts aimed at a Ukraine settlement, and NATO’s ongoing eastern flank reinforcements remain key variables that could influence near-term probabilities of any conventional incursion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Russia’s ongoing campaign in Ukraine, which has left Moscow controlling roughly one-fifth of the territory as of mid-2026, continues to shape assessments of direct confrontation risks with NATO. Russian officials have issued repeated warnings against NATO forces or bases in Ukraine while conducting hybrid probes, including repeated airspace incursions from Belarus into Poland and Lithuania. Western intelligence assessments highlight elevated concerns over both inadvertent and deliberate escalation, yet note that Russian forces remain heavily committed in Ukraine and show limited capacity for simultaneous large-scale operations against alliance members. Diplomatic efforts, including recent U.S.-Russia contacts aimed at a Ukraine settlement, and NATO’s ongoing eastern flank reinforcements remain key variables that could influence near-term probabilities of any conventional incursion.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
May 4 2026
NATO steps up Arctic readiness as Russia expands submarine fleet
Reports of increased Russian submarine activity in the High North and NATO’s Arctic response were covered by Bloomberg. Though not a direct invasion threat, the story reinforced a perception of renewed Russian aggression, contributing to the market’s modest rebound to 3 % before the final slide to 2 %.
Apr 22 2026
Dutch intelligence says Russia could be ready for NATO conflict within a year
June 30, 2026 rises to 5%1%
The MIVD’s annual report warned that Russia could be ready to launch a regional conflict against NATO within a year of the Ukraine war ending, aiming for limited territorial gains. The assessment raised concerns about a possible Russian offensive, pushing the market’s Yes probability up to 5 % in late‑April.
Apr 21 2026
Dutch Intelligence Report States Russia-NATO Conflict Delayed as Long as Ukraine War Continues
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
The Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) annual report concluded that a conventional Russian attack on NATO is virtually out of the question while hostilities in Ukraine persist, though Russia could prepare within a year after they end.
Apr 20 2026
NATO intercepts Russian bombers over the Baltic Sea
NATO forces intercepted Russian strategic bombers and fighter jets over the Baltic Sea. The visible Russian air activity near NATO’s eastern flank heightened perceived invasion risk, supporting the upward move to 5 % in the market.
Mar 31 2026
French Air Force General Projects Potential Russian Test of NATO Strength for 2028-2029
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%1%
General Dominique Tardif stated that Russia might test NATO's resolve in the 2028-2029 timeframe, reinforcing the consensus that an invasion is not imminent in 2026.
Mar 9 2026
Lithuania warns of Russian troop and missile buildup near NATO borders
Lithuania’s threat assessment reported expansion of Russian brigades into divisions and a new Iskander‑M missile brigade near Kaliningrad. The report warned of accelerated Russian buildup, which initially lifted market odds but later contributed to a gradual decline as analysts judged the buildup insufficient for a near‑term invasion.
Mar 6 2026
Lithuanian Intelligence Warns Russia Prepares for Long-Term NATO Conflict but Faces Near-Term Constraints
Lithuania's annual national threat assessment highlighted that Russia is actively restructuring its military for a potential medium-to-long-term conflict with NATO, but its immediate capacity remains heavily constrained by the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Nov 19 2025
Swedish Chief of Defense warns Russia likely to test NATO's Article 5 soon
On November 19, Sweden's top military official stated that Russia is prepared to take enormous strategic risks and is likely to test NATO's collective defense pledge (Article 5) soon, especially in the Baltic states. This statement reflected ongoing hybrid and military threats but no confirmed invasion, aligning with the market's low probability for a Russian invasion of NATO territory in 2025.
Nov 17 2025
EU Defense Commissioner warns Russia may attack NATO country within 2-4 years
On November 17, the EU Commissioner for Defense and Space warned that intelligence from several European countries indicates Russian President Putin could be ready to test NATO's Article 5 within the next two to four years, before 2030. This official warning highlighted long-term risks but did not indicate an imminent invasion, consistent with the market's low probability assessment during the period.
Nov 7 2025
German General Warns Russia Could Launch Limited Attack on NATO at Any Time
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%1%
A top German military official warned that Russia possesses the capacity to execute a limited attack on NATO territory, though the decision depends heavily on NATO's deterrence posture.
Oct 13 2025
German intelligence warns of new level of Russian attacks on Europe
On October 13, the German Foreign Intelligence Service president stated that Russian attacks on Europe have reached a new level of confrontation, with Russia probing borders and destabilizing NATO countries through hybrid warfare. This assessment underscored the ongoing threat but also indicated that Russia was not yet conducting a direct military invasion of NATO territory, maintaining market skepticism about an imminent invasion.
Oct 11 2025
UK, US, NATO flew 12-hour patrol on Russian border amid Ukraine war
On October 11, the UK announced that Royal Air Force aircraft joined a 12-hour NATO patrol near Russia's border following a series of Russian drone and aircraft incursions into NATO airspace. This joint operation demonstrated NATO's increased vigilance and military readiness to deter Russian provocations near its borders, contributing to market perceptions of a low likelihood of a full Russian invasion of NATO territory.
Oct 6 2025
ISW Reports Russia Entering 'Phase 0' of Preparations for NATO Conflict
June 30, 2026 rises to 13%1%
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russia's surge in hybrid attacks and drone incursions indicates it has entered 'Phase 0' of psychological and informational preparation for a potential future war with NATO.
Sep 25 2025
Russia Accuses NATO and EU of Waging 'Real War' via Ukraine
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Western allies of direct involvement in a 'real war' against Russia, escalating diplomatic tensions as airspace violations continued.
Sep 23 2025
NATO Warns Russia Over Escalating Airspace Violations
June 30, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Following airspace violations in Poland, Romania, and Estonia, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned Russia that the alliance would use all necessary military and non-military tools to defend itself.
Sep 23 2025
NATO warns Russia it will use all means to defend airspace after incursions
On September 23, NATO publicly warned Russia that it would employ all necessary military and non-military tools to defend its airspace following recent Russian drone and fighter jet incursions into NATO member states' airspace, including Poland and Estonia. This heightened alert and NATO's commitment to Article 5 reassured markets that NATO would respond firmly to any Russian aggression against its members, limiting perceived invasion risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Russia’s ongoing campaign in Ukraine, which has left Moscow controlling roughly one-fifth of the territory as of mid-2026, continues to shape assessments of direct confrontation risks with NATO. Russian officials have issued repeated warnings against NATO forces or bases in Ukraine while conducting hybrid probes, including repeated airspace incursions from Belarus into Poland and Lithuania. Western intelligence assessments highlight elevated concerns over both inadvertent and deliberate escalation, yet note that Russian forces remain heavily committed in Ukraine and show limited capacity for simultaneous large-scale operations against alliance members. Diplomatic efforts, including recent U.S.-Russia contacts aimed at a Ukraine settlement, and NATO’s ongoing eastern flank reinforcements remain key variables that could influence near-term probabilities of any conventional incursion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Russia’s ongoing campaign in Ukraine, which has left Moscow controlling roughly one-fifth of the territory as of mid-2026, continues to shape assessments of direct confrontation risks with NATO. Russian officials have issued repeated warnings against NATO forces or bases in Ukraine while conducting hybrid probes, including repeated airspace incursions from Belarus into Poland and Lithuania. Western intelligence assessments highlight elevated concerns over both inadvertent and deliberate escalation, yet note that Russian forces remain heavily committed in Ukraine and show limited capacity for simultaneous large-scale operations against alliance members. Diplomatic efforts, including recent U.S.-Russia contacts aimed at a Ukraine settlement, and NATO’s ongoing eastern flank reinforcements remain key variables that could influence near-term probabilities of any conventional incursion.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
May 4 2026
NATO steps up Arctic readiness as Russia expands submarine fleet
Reports of increased Russian submarine activity in the High North and NATO’s Arctic response were covered by Bloomberg. Though not a direct invasion threat, the story reinforced a perception of renewed Russian aggression, contributing to the market’s modest rebound to 3 % before the final slide to 2 %.
Apr 22 2026
Dutch intelligence says Russia could be ready for NATO conflict within a year
June 30, 2026 rises to 5%1%
The MIVD’s annual report warned that Russia could be ready to launch a regional conflict against NATO within a year of the Ukraine war ending, aiming for limited territorial gains. The assessment raised concerns about a possible Russian offensive, pushing the market’s Yes probability up to 5 % in late‑April.
Apr 21 2026
Dutch Intelligence Report States Russia-NATO Conflict Delayed as Long as Ukraine War Continues
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%1%
The Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) annual report concluded that a conventional Russian attack on NATO is virtually out of the question while hostilities in Ukraine persist, though Russia could prepare within a year after they end.
Apr 20 2026
NATO intercepts Russian bombers over the Baltic Sea
NATO forces intercepted Russian strategic bombers and fighter jets over the Baltic Sea. The visible Russian air activity near NATO’s eastern flank heightened perceived invasion risk, supporting the upward move to 5 % in the market.
Mar 31 2026
French Air Force General Projects Potential Russian Test of NATO Strength for 2028-2029
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%1%
General Dominique Tardif stated that Russia might test NATO's resolve in the 2028-2029 timeframe, reinforcing the consensus that an invasion is not imminent in 2026.
Mar 9 2026
Lithuania warns of Russian troop and missile buildup near NATO borders
Lithuania’s threat assessment reported expansion of Russian brigades into divisions and a new Iskander‑M missile brigade near Kaliningrad. The report warned of accelerated Russian buildup, which initially lifted market odds but later contributed to a gradual decline as analysts judged the buildup insufficient for a near‑term invasion.
Mar 6 2026
Lithuanian Intelligence Warns Russia Prepares for Long-Term NATO Conflict but Faces Near-Term Constraints
Lithuania's annual national threat assessment highlighted that Russia is actively restructuring its military for a potential medium-to-long-term conflict with NATO, but its immediate capacity remains heavily constrained by the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Nov 19 2025
Swedish Chief of Defense warns Russia likely to test NATO's Article 5 soon
On November 19, Sweden's top military official stated that Russia is prepared to take enormous strategic risks and is likely to test NATO's collective defense pledge (Article 5) soon, especially in the Baltic states. This statement reflected ongoing hybrid and military threats but no confirmed invasion, aligning with the market's low probability for a Russian invasion of NATO territory in 2025.
Nov 17 2025
EU Defense Commissioner warns Russia may attack NATO country within 2-4 years
On November 17, the EU Commissioner for Defense and Space warned that intelligence from several European countries indicates Russian President Putin could be ready to test NATO's Article 5 within the next two to four years, before 2030. This official warning highlighted long-term risks but did not indicate an imminent invasion, consistent with the market's low probability assessment during the period.
Nov 7 2025
German General Warns Russia Could Launch Limited Attack on NATO at Any Time
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%1%
A top German military official warned that Russia possesses the capacity to execute a limited attack on NATO territory, though the decision depends heavily on NATO's deterrence posture.
Oct 13 2025
German intelligence warns of new level of Russian attacks on Europe
On October 13, the German Foreign Intelligence Service president stated that Russian attacks on Europe have reached a new level of confrontation, with Russia probing borders and destabilizing NATO countries through hybrid warfare. This assessment underscored the ongoing threat but also indicated that Russia was not yet conducting a direct military invasion of NATO territory, maintaining market skepticism about an imminent invasion.
Oct 11 2025
UK, US, NATO flew 12-hour patrol on Russian border amid Ukraine war
On October 11, the UK announced that Royal Air Force aircraft joined a 12-hour NATO patrol near Russia's border following a series of Russian drone and aircraft incursions into NATO airspace. This joint operation demonstrated NATO's increased vigilance and military readiness to deter Russian provocations near its borders, contributing to market perceptions of a low likelihood of a full Russian invasion of NATO territory.
Oct 6 2025
ISW Reports Russia Entering 'Phase 0' of Preparations for NATO Conflict
June 30, 2026 rises to 13%1%
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russia's surge in hybrid attacks and drone incursions indicates it has entered 'Phase 0' of psychological and informational preparation for a potential future war with NATO.
Sep 25 2025
Russia Accuses NATO and EU of Waging 'Real War' via Ukraine
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Western allies of direct involvement in a 'real war' against Russia, escalating diplomatic tensions as airspace violations continued.
Sep 23 2025
NATO Warns Russia Over Escalating Airspace Violations
June 30, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Following airspace violations in Poland, Romania, and Estonia, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned Russia that the alliance would use all necessary military and non-military tools to defend itself.
Sep 23 2025
NATO warns Russia it will use all means to defend airspace after incursions
On September 23, NATO publicly warned Russia that it would employ all necessary military and non-military tools to defend its airspace following recent Russian drone and fighter jet incursions into NATO member states' airspace, including Poland and Estonia. This heightened alert and NATO's commitment to Article 5 reassured markets that NATO would respond firmly to any Russian aggression against its members, limiting perceived invasion risk.
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ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
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"Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?" เป็นตลาดทำนายผลบน Polymarket ที่มี 3 ผลลัพธ์ที่เป็นไปได้ โดยนักเทรดซื้อและขายหุ้นตามสิ่งที่เชื่อว่าจะเกิดขึ้น ผลลัพธ์ที่นำอยู่ในปัจจุบันคือ "December 31, 2026" ที่ 10% ตามด้วย "December 31, 2025" ที่ 0% ราคาสะท้อนความน่าจะเป็นจากฝูงชนแบบเรียลไทม์ ตัวอย่างเช่น หุ้นที่มีราคา 10¢ หมายความว่าตลาดให้โอกาส 10% กับผลลัพธ์นั้น อัตราเหล่านี้เปลี่ยนแปลงตลอดเวลาตามที่นักเทรดตอบสนองต่อข้อมูลและพัฒนาการใหม่ หุ้นในผลลัพธ์ที่ถูกต้องสามารถแลกได้ $1 ต่อหุ้นเมื่อตลาดตัดสินผล
ณ วันนี้ "Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?" มีปริมาณการซื้อขายรวม $5.1 million ตั้งแต่ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ May 28, 2025 ระดับการซื้อขายนี้สะท้อนถึงการมีส่วนร่วมอย่างมากจากชุมชน Polymarket และช่วยให้อัตราปัจจุบันได้รับข้อมูลจากผู้เข้าร่วมตลาดจำนวนมาก คุณสามารถติดตามการเคลื่อนไหวของราคาแบบสดและเทรดผลลัพธ์ใดก็ได้จากหน้านี้โดยตรง
ในการเทรด "Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?" ดู 3 ผลลัพธ์ที่มีในหน้านี้ แต่ละผลลัพธ์แสดงราคาปัจจุบันที่เป็นตัวแทนความน่าจะเป็นโดยนัยของตลาด เลือกผลลัพธ์ที่คุณเชื่อว่ามีโอกาสสูงสุด เลือก "Yes" เพื่อเทรดสนับสนุนหรือ "No" เพื่อเทรดคัดค้าน ใส่จำนวนเงินแล้วกด "Trade" ถ้าผลลัพธ์ที่คุณเลือกถูกต้องเมื่อตลาดตัดสินผล หุ้น "Yes" ของคุณจ่าย $1 ต่อหุ้น ถ้าไม่ถูกต้อง จ่าย $0 คุณยังสามารถขายหุ้นได้ตลอดเวลาก่อนการตัดสินผลหากต้องการล็อกกำไรหรือตัดขาดทุน
ตัวเต็งปัจจุบันสำหรับ "Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?" คือ "December 31, 2026" ที่ 10% ซึ่งหมายความว่าตลาดให้โอกาส 10% กับผลลัพธ์นั้น ผลลัพธ์ที่ตามมาคือ "December 31, 2025" ที่ 0% อัตราเหล่านี้อัปเดตแบบเรียลไทม์ตามที่นักเทรดซื้อและขายหุ้น จึงสะท้อนมุมมองรวมล่าสุดว่าอะไรมีโอกาสเกิดขึ้นมากที่สุด กลับมาดูบ่อยๆ หรือบุ๊กมาร์กหน้านี้เพื่อติดตามว่าอัตราเปลี่ยนไปอย่างไรเมื่อมีข้อมูลใหม่
กฎการตัดสินผลของ "Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?" กำหนดอย่างชัดเจนว่าต้องเกิดอะไรขึ้นเพื่อให้แต่ละผลลัพธ์ถูกประกาศเป็นผู้ชนะ รวมถึงแหล่งข้อมูลอย่างเป็นทางการที่ใช้ตัดสินผล คุณสามารถตรวจสอบเกณฑ์การตัดสินผลทั้งหมดได้ในส่วน "กฎ" บนหน้านี้เหนือความคิดเห็น เราแนะนำให้อ่านกฎอย่างละเอียดก่อนเทรด เพราะกฎระบุเงื่อนไขเฉพาะ กรณีพิเศษ และแหล่งข้อมูลที่ควบคุมการตัดสินตลาดนี้
ได้เลย คุณไม่ต้องเทรดก็ติดตามข้อมูลได้ หน้านี้ทำหน้าที่เป็นตัวติดตามสดสำหรับ "Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?" ความน่าจะเป็นของผลลัพธ์อัปเดตแบบเรียลไทม์เมื่อมีการเทรดใหม่เข้ามา คุณสามารถบุ๊กมาร์กหน้านี้และดูส่วนความคิดเห็นเพื่ออ่านว่านักเทรดคนอื่นพูดถึงอะไร คุณยังใช้ตัวกรองช่วงเวลาบนกราฟเพื่อดูว่าอัตราเปลี่ยนไปอย่างไรตามเวลา เป็นหน้าต่างเรียลไทม์ฟรีเพื่อดูว่าตลาดคาดว่าอะไรจะเกิดขึ้น
อัตราของ Polymarket ถูกกำหนดโดยนักเทรดจริงที่ลงเงินจริงตามความเชื่อ ซึ่งมักให้การทำนายที่แม่นยำ ด้วยปริมาณการซื้อขาย $5.1 million ใน "Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?" ราคาเหล่านี้รวบรวมความรู้และความเชื่อมั่นของผู้เข้าร่วมหลายพันคน ซึ่งมักแม่นยำกว่าโพล การคาดการณ์ของผู้เชี่ยวชาญ และแบบสำรวจแบบดั้งเดิม ตลาดทำนายผลอย่าง Polymarket มีประวัติความแม่นยำที่ดี โดยเฉพาะเมื่อเหตุการณ์ใกล้ถึงวันตัดสินผล ตัวอย่างเช่น Polymarket มีคะแนนความแม่นยำหนึ่งเดือนอยู่ที่ 94% สำหรับสถิติล่าสุดเกี่ยวกับความแม่นยำในการทำนายของ Polymarket เยี่ยมชมหน้าความแม่นยำ บน Polymarket
เพื่อเริ่มเทรด "Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?" สมัครบัญชี Polymarket ฟรีและเติมเงินด้วยคริปโต บัตรเครดิตหรือเดบิต หรือโอนจากธนาคาร เมื่อบัญชีมีเงินแล้ว กลับมาที่หน้านี้ เลือกผลลัพธ์ที่ต้องการเทรด ใส่จำนวนเงิน แล้วกด "Trade" หากคุณเพิ่งเริ่มใช้ตลาดทำนายผล คลิกลิงก์ "วิธีการทำงาน" ด้านบนของหน้า Polymarket เพื่อดูขั้นตอนการเทรดอย่างง่าย
บน Polymarket ราคาของแต่ละผลลัพธ์แสดงความน่าจะเป็นโดยนัยของตลาด ราคา 10¢ สำหรับ "December 31, 2026" ในตลาด "Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?" หมายความว่านักเทรดเชื่อรวมกันว่ามีโอกาสประมาณ 10% ที่ "December 31, 2026" จะเป็นผลลัพธ์ที่ถูกต้อง ถ้าคุณซื้อหุ้น "Yes" ที่ 10¢ และผลลัพธ์ถูกต้อง คุณจะได้รับ $1.00 ต่อหุ้น — กำไร 90¢ ต่อหุ้น ถ้าไม่ถูกต้อง หุ้นเหล่านั้นมีค่า $0
วันสิ้นสุดตามกำหนดของตลาด "Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?" ได้ผ่านไปแล้ว แต่ตลาดยังไม่ได้ตัดสินผลอย่างเป็นทางการ วันสิ้นสุดระบุว่าเมื่อไหร่ที่คาดว่าเหตุการณ์จะเกิดขึ้นหรือสามารถทราบได้ ไม่ใช่จุดที่การซื้อขายหยุด ตลาดยังเปิดให้เทรดจนกว่าผลลัพธ์จะถูกตัดสินอย่างเป็นทางการผ่านกระบวนการตัดสินผล คุณยังซื้อ ขาย หรือปิดสถานะได้ขณะที่ตลาดรอการตัดสินผล ดูตัวติดตามสถานะการตัดสินผลและส่วน "กฎ" บนหน้านี้สำหรับอัปเดตเกี่ยวกับไทม์ไลน์การตัดสินผล
ตลาด "Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?" มีชุมชนที่คึกคักด้วย 62 ความคิดเห็นที่นักเทรดแชร์การวิเคราะห์ ถกเถียงผลลัพธ์ และพูดคุยเกี่ยวกับพัฒนาการล่าสุด เลื่อนลงไปที่ส่วนความคิดเห็นด้านล่างเพื่ออ่านว่าผู้เข้าร่วมคนอื่นคิดอย่างไร คุณยังสามารถกรองตาม "ผู้ถือรายใหญ่" เพื่อดูว่านักเทรดรายใหญ่ของตลาดมีสถานะอย่างไร หรือดูแท็บ "กิจกรรม" สำหรับฟีดการเทรดแบบเรียลไทม์
Polymarket เป็นตลาดทำนายผลที่ใหญ่ที่สุดในโลก ที่คุณสามารถติดตามข้อมูลและทำกำไรจากความรู้ของคุณเกี่ยวกับเหตุการณ์ในโลกจริง นักเทรดซื้อและขายหุ้นในผลลัพธ์ของหัวข้อต่างๆ ตั้งแต่การเมืองและการเลือกตั้ง ไปจนถึงคริปโต การเงิน กีฬา เทคโนโลยี และวัฒนธรรม รวมถึงตลาดอย่าง "Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?" ราคาสะท้อนความน่าจะเป็นจากฝูงชนแบบเรียลไทม์ที่มีความเชื่อมั่นทางการเงินหนุนหลัง ซึ่งมักให้สัญญาณที่เร็วและแม่นยำกว่าโพล ผู้เชี่ยวชาญ หรือแบบสำรวจแบบดั้งเดิม
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