Ongoing U.S.-mediated talks via Pakistan seek to convert the fragile April 2026 ceasefire into a permanent Israel-Iran agreement, yet core disputes over Iran's uranium enrichment limits, ballistic missile program, and control of the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. President Trump rejected Iran's latest three-stage proposal as unacceptable, citing insufficient concessions on nuclear issues, while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has narrowed other demands but left missile concerns open. The current pause in direct strikes and continued diplomatic exchanges via intermediaries represent the main near-term catalysts, though historical precedent for rapid breakthroughs in such entrenched conflicts suggests low near-term probability of full resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$883,232 ปริมาณ
May 31, 2026
May 31
3%
June 30
16%
$883,232 ปริมาณ
May 31
$250,636 ปริมาณ
3%
June 30
$317,982 ปริมาณ
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing U.S.-mediated talks via Pakistan seek to convert the fragile April 2026 ceasefire into a permanent Israel-Iran agreement, yet core disputes over Iran's uranium enrichment limits, ballistic missile program, and control of the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. President Trump rejected Iran's latest three-stage proposal as unacceptable, citing insufficient concessions on nuclear issues, while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has narrowed other demands but left missile concerns open. The current pause in direct strikes and continued diplomatic exchanges via intermediaries represent the main near-term catalysts, though historical precedent for rapid breakthroughs in such entrenched conflicts suggests low near-term probability of full resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$883,232วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing U.S.-mediated talks via Pakistan seek to convert the fragile April 2026 ceasefire into a permanent Israel-Iran agreement, yet core disputes over Iran's uranium enrichment limits, ballistic missile program, and control of the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. President Trump rejected Iran's latest three-stage proposal as unacceptable, citing insufficient concessions on nuclear issues, while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has narrowed other demands but left missile concerns open. The current pause in direct strikes and continued diplomatic exchanges via intermediaries represent the main near-term catalysts, though historical precedent for rapid breakthroughs in such entrenched conflicts suggests low near-term probability of full resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$883,232วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-mediated talks via Pakistan seek to convert the fragile April 2026 ceasefire into a permanent Israel-Iran agreement, yet core disputes over Iran's uranium enrichment limits, ballistic missile program, and control of the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. President Trump rejected Iran's latest three-stage proposal as unacceptable, citing insufficient concessions on nuclear issues, while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has narrowed other demands but left missile concerns open. The current pause in direct strikes and continued diplomatic exchanges via intermediaries represent the main near-term catalysts, though historical precedent for rapid breakthroughs in such entrenched conflicts suggests low near-term probability of full resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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