Keir Starmer leads trader sentiment in this market due to Labour’s sharp losses in the May 2026 UK local and devolved elections, which triggered immediate demands from more than eighty MPs for his resignation and reports of cabinet ministers preparing leadership challenges. These developments have elevated the odds of an early exit through internal revolt or snap contest well before the next general election. Gustavo Petro ranks second because Colombia’s presidential term ends in August 2026 after the May vote, with his party securing congressional seats but lacking a clear majority for further reforms. Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at lower probability amid postponed Communist Party congress proceedings and persistent external pressure, though no confirmed internal challenge has materialized. The remaining candidates trail because their tenures face fewer immediate institutional or electoral triggers through 2027.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNext leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Starmer - UK PM 43%
Petro - Colombia President 30%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.8%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President 1.3%
$352,323 ปริมาณ
$352,323 ปริมาณ
Starmer - UK PM
43%
Petro - Colombia President
30%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
10%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
1%
Lecornu - France PM
1%
None before 2027
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
<1%
Putin - Russia President
<1%
Trump - USA President
<1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
<1%
Macron - France President
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
<1%
Starmer - UK PM 43%
Petro - Colombia President 30%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.8%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President 1.3%
$352,323 ปริมาณ
$352,323 ปริมาณ
Starmer - UK PM
43%
Petro - Colombia President
30%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
10%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
1%
Lecornu - France PM
1%
None before 2027
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
<1%
Putin - Russia President
<1%
Trump - USA President
<1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
<1%
Macron - France President
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
<1%
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Keir Starmer leads trader sentiment in this market due to Labour’s sharp losses in the May 2026 UK local and devolved elections, which triggered immediate demands from more than eighty MPs for his resignation and reports of cabinet ministers preparing leadership challenges. These developments have elevated the odds of an early exit through internal revolt or snap contest well before the next general election. Gustavo Petro ranks second because Colombia’s presidential term ends in August 2026 after the May vote, with his party securing congressional seats but lacking a clear majority for further reforms. Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at lower probability amid postponed Communist Party congress proceedings and persistent external pressure, though no confirmed internal challenge has materialized. The remaining candidates trail because their tenures face fewer immediate institutional or electoral triggers through 2027.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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