Gustavo Petro leads at 51.5% due to Colombia’s fixed presidential term ending with successor inauguration on August 7, 2026, after the May–June elections, creating a scheduled exit independent of approval ratings. Keir Starmer follows at 30.5% amid sustained negative favorability near –45, recent local election setbacks, and internal Labour pressure for resignation that could accelerate departure before the 2029 deadline. Díaz-Canel sits at 7.8% amid Cuba’s deepening economic strains and reported U.S. sanctions, though centralized control limits near-term removal odds. Remaining candidates trade below 2% as their institutional positions, term structures, or coalition dynamics show fewer immediate catalysts for ouster before 2027. Trader pricing reflects these structural timelines and polling-driven volatility rather than guaranteed outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วStarmer - UK PM 95%
Petro - Colombia President 2.1%
Abbas - President of Palestine <1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President <1%
$16,546,268 ปริมาณ
$16,546,268 ปริมาณ
Starmer - UK PM
95%
Petro - Colombia President
2%
Abbas - President of Palestine
1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
1%
Trump - USA President
<1%
Putin - Russia President
<1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
<1%
Lecornu - France PM
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
<1%
None before 2027
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Macron - France President
<1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
<1%
Starmer - UK PM 95%
Petro - Colombia President 2.1%
Abbas - President of Palestine <1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President <1%
$16,546,268 ปริมาณ
$16,546,268 ปริมาณ
Starmer - UK PM
95%
Petro - Colombia President
2%
Abbas - President of Palestine
1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
1%
Trump - USA President
<1%
Putin - Russia President
<1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
<1%
Lecornu - France PM
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
<1%
None before 2027
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Macron - France President
<1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
<1%
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Gustavo Petro leads at 51.5% due to Colombia’s fixed presidential term ending with successor inauguration on August 7, 2026, after the May–June elections, creating a scheduled exit independent of approval ratings. Keir Starmer follows at 30.5% amid sustained negative favorability near –45, recent local election setbacks, and internal Labour pressure for resignation that could accelerate departure before the 2029 deadline. Díaz-Canel sits at 7.8% amid Cuba’s deepening economic strains and reported U.S. sanctions, though centralized control limits near-term removal odds. Remaining candidates trade below 2% as their institutional positions, term structures, or coalition dynamics show fewer immediate catalysts for ouster before 2027. Trader pricing reflects these structural timelines and polling-driven volatility rather than guaranteed outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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