The ongoing U.S.-Iran naval standoff and Iranian closure declarations since early March have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 5 percent of pre-conflict daily averages into mid-May 2026, with ship-tracking data showing single-digit passages amid active blockades on both sides. Persistent risks from IRGC threats, mine concerns, and P&I insurance cancellations have deterred major carriers, stranding over 1,500 vessels and preventing any sustained return to normal volumes by the May 15 resolution date. Traders assign 99.9 percent probability to "No" because no verifiable de-escalation or full clearance occurred within the window. A comprehensive ceasefire with explicit transit guarantees could still enable gradual reopening, though maritime analysts note that full normalization typically requires months of stable conditions even after initial agreements.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
$17,429,987 ปริมาณ
$17,429,987 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
$17,429,987 ปริมาณ
$17,429,987 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.The ongoing U.S.-Iran naval standoff and Iranian closure declarations since early March have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 5 percent of pre-conflict daily averages into mid-May 2026, with ship-tracking data showing single-digit passages amid active blockades on both sides. Persistent risks from IRGC threats, mine concerns, and P&I insurance cancellations have deterred major carriers, stranding over 1,500 vessels and preventing any sustained return to normal volumes by the May 15 resolution date. Traders assign 99.9 percent probability to "No" because no verifiable de-escalation or full clearance occurred within the window. A comprehensive ceasefire with explicit transit guarantees could still enable gradual reopening, though maritime analysts note that full normalization typically requires months of stable conditions even after initial agreements.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 22, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$17,429,987วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 22, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.The ongoing U.S.-Iran naval standoff and Iranian closure declarations since early March have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 5 percent of pre-conflict daily averages into mid-May 2026, with ship-tracking data showing single-digit passages amid active blockades on both sides. Persistent risks from IRGC threats, mine concerns, and P&I insurance cancellations have deterred major carriers, stranding over 1,500 vessels and preventing any sustained return to normal volumes by the May 15 resolution date. Traders assign 99.9 percent probability to "No" because no verifiable de-escalation or full clearance occurred within the window. A comprehensive ceasefire with explicit transit guarantees could still enable gradual reopening, though maritime analysts note that full normalization typically requires months of stable conditions even after initial agreements.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$17,429,987วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 22, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing U.S.-Iran naval standoff and Iranian closure declarations since early March have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 5 percent of pre-conflict daily averages into mid-May 2026, with ship-tracking data showing single-digit passages amid active blockades on both sides. Persistent risks from IRGC threats, mine concerns, and P&I insurance cancellations have deterred major carriers, stranding over 1,500 vessels and preventing any sustained return to normal volumes by the May 15 resolution date. Traders assign 99.9 percent probability to "No" because no verifiable de-escalation or full clearance occurred within the window. A comprehensive ceasefire with explicit transit guarantees could still enable gradual reopening, though maritime analysts note that full normalization typically requires months of stable conditions even after initial agreements.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย