The 97.3% trader consensus on “No” reflects the absence of any new U.S. ground invasion or regime-change operation in Latin America since the January 2026 Venezuela action, with only weeks remaining in the year. Recent developments center on joint counter-narcotics training with Colombian forces, U.S. intelligence support for Venezuelan strikes on ELN targets, and expanded security cooperation under initiatives like the Shield of the Americas, rather than unilateral U.S. military intervention. High-level visits, including those by U.S. officials to Bogotá, and explicit rejections of invasion proposals by Mexico and others reinforce the low probability. A late-year shift would require rapid escalation with Mexico or Cuba, major new intelligence triggers, or unforeseen leadership changes, none of which current diplomatic and military patterns indicate.