Elon Musk's typical posting cadence on X, combined with consistent recent activity across tech, AI, and company updates, has positioned the 40-64 tweet range as the clear market favorite at over 66% implied probability. Traders closely track his daily volume—often 15–25 posts when engaged with product news or replies—and the three-day window from August 15–17 shows no major slowdown or spike from external events like launches or announcements that would push totals higher. The sub-40 bucket at 32.5% reflects the chance of lighter engagement, while anything above 65 remains a long shot given historical patterns and the absence of viral controversies or sustained threads. Upcoming chart updates or platform metrics could refine sentiment before the period closes, but current consensus aligns with steady, moderate output rather than extremes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว40-64 65%
<40 33%
65-89 1.6%
90-114 <1%
$309,987 ปริมาณ
$309,987 ปริมาณ
Aug 17, 2026
<40
33%
40-64
65%
65-89
2%
90-114
<1%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 65%
<40 33%
65-89 1.6%
90-114 <1%
$309,987 ปริมาณ
$309,987 ปริมาณ
Aug 17, 2026
<40
$70,288 ปริมาณ
33%
40-64
$41,518 ปริมาณ
65%
65-89
$48,193 ปริมาณ
2%
90-114
$63,842 ปริมาณ
<1%
115-139
$48,694 ปริมาณ
<1%
140-164
$16,923 ปริมาณ
<1%
165-189
$8,347 ปริมาณ
<1%
190-214
$3,264 ปริมาณ
<1%
215-239
$4,806 ปริมาณ
<1%
240+
$4,113 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's typical posting cadence on X, combined with consistent recent activity across tech, AI, and company updates, has positioned the 40-64 tweet range as the clear market favorite at over 66% implied probability. Traders closely track his daily volume—often 15–25 posts when engaged with product news or replies—and the three-day window from August 15–17 shows no major slowdown or spike from external events like launches or announcements that would push totals higher. The sub-40 bucket at 32.5% reflects the chance of lighter engagement, while anything above 65 remains a long shot given historical patterns and the absence of viral controversies or sustained threads. Upcoming chart updates or platform metrics could refine sentiment before the period closes, but current consensus aligns with steady, moderate output rather than extremes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$309,987วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's typical posting cadence on X, combined with consistent recent activity across tech, AI, and company updates, has positioned the 40-64 tweet range as the clear market favorite at over 66% implied probability. Traders closely track his daily volume—often 15–25 posts when engaged with product news or replies—and the three-day window from August 15–17 shows no major slowdown or spike from external events like launches or announcements that would push totals higher. The sub-40 bucket at 32.5% reflects the chance of lighter engagement, while anything above 65 remains a long shot given historical patterns and the absence of viral controversies or sustained threads. Upcoming chart updates or platform metrics could refine sentiment before the period closes, but current consensus aligns with steady, moderate output rather than extremes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$309,987วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk's typical posting cadence on X, combined with consistent recent activity across tech, AI, and company updates, has positioned the 40-64 tweet range as the clear market favorite at over 66% implied probability. Traders closely track his daily volume—often 15–25 posts when engaged with product news or replies—and the three-day window from August 15–17 shows no major slowdown or spike from external events like launches or announcements that would push totals higher. The sub-40 bucket at 32.5% reflects the chance of lighter engagement, while anything above 65 remains a long shot given historical patterns and the absence of viral controversies or sustained threads. Upcoming chart updates or platform metrics could refine sentiment before the period closes, but current consensus aligns with steady, moderate output rather than extremes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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