**Recent U.S.-Colombia relations have shifted decisively toward cooperation, driving the 97.4% implied probability on “No.”** Tensions peaked earlier in 2026 amid U.S. strikes in Venezuela, counternarcotics disputes, and sharp rhetoric from President Trump toward then-President Gustavo Petro. Those frictions eased after Colombia’s May-June 2026 presidential election, in which right-leaning candidate Abelardo de la Espriella defeated left-wing opponents and took office on August 7. The Trump administration dispatched a presidential delegation to the inauguration and signaled plans for a $1 billion security assistance package, explicitly framing the move as a reset of the bilateral partnership on counternarcotics, migration, and regional stability. De la Espriella’s platform emphasizes military-led security measures, alignment with U.S. counter-cartel initiatives, and closer economic ties—positions that align with Washington’s priorities and reduce the incentive for coercive action. Historical precedent reinforces trader consensus: the two countries maintain a long-standing security and economic alliance, with Colombia designated a Major Non-NATO Ally. An invasion would require crossing major diplomatic, legal, and congressional thresholds with little evident justification under current conditions. **Scenarios that could still shift odds remain low-probability but include a rapid reversal in Bogotá’s counternarcotics performance, an unforeseen regional escalation involving Venezuela, or a sudden collapse in the new Colombian administration’s stability.** Absent such developments, the market reflects the wisdom of crowds pricing in sustained diplomatic engagement rather than military confrontation through the end of 2026.