Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 60% implied probability to a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, reflecting cautious optimism amid stalled indirect negotiations despite recent escalatory rhetoric. Over the past week, President Trump rejected Tehran's counterproposal, deeming the ceasefire "on life support," while Iran accused Washington of "unreasonable demands," prompting new US sanctions on May 11. Earlier in May, Iran reviewed a US one-page memorandum of understanding proposing 30 days of talks to ease Strait of Hormuz blockades in exchange for nuclear discussions, mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, but no direct face-to-face meeting has materialized since April's failed 21-hour session in Islamabad. Vice President Vance's Qatar meetings signal backchannel efforts, with Trump's ongoing China summit potentially influencing dynamics, though mutual distrust and verification hurdles temper near-term expectations before June.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วPolymarket update notes “CNN reported a second round may not have taken place,” reinforcing skepticism and pushing the market to its current low
June 30 drops to 59%5%
Polymarket update notes “CNN reported a second round may not have taken place,” reinforcing skepticism and pushing the market to its current low
Polymarket data shows traders monitoring the June 30 deadline after no confirmed in‑person meeting, pushing the
Polymarket data shows traders monitoring the June 30 deadline after no confirmed in‑person meeting, pushing the
Time article notes mixed messages from both sides and that Secretary of State Marco Rubio stresses the need for a clear diplomatic solution, dampening optimism
June 30 dips to 60%4%
Time article notes mixed messages from both sides and that Secretary of State Marco Rubio stresses the need for a clear diplomatic solution, dampening optimism
Wall Street Journal article says talks may resume in Islamabad next week, briefly lifting hopes and causing a modest
June 30 dips to 64%2%
Wall Street Journal article says talks may resume in Islamabad next week, briefly lifting hopes and causing a modest
Polymarket summary notes that despite ongoing indirect talks, no formal in‑person U.S.–Iran meeting has materialised, keeping odds steady near 63 %
June 30 dips to 63%2%
Polymarket summary notes that despite ongoing indirect talks, no formal in‑person U.S.–Iran meeting has materialised, keeping odds steady near 63 %
US imposes new sanctions targeting Iranian nuclear research and ballistic missile support
May 31 dips to 24%4%
The imposition of fresh sanctions reinforced a confrontational US stance, further diminishing expectations of a diplomatic meeting by May 31.
CNN reports the United States and Iran are “moving closer” to a short memorandum to end the war, citing a regional source
June 30 drops to 64%14%
CNN reports the United States and Iran are “moving closer” to a short memorandum to end the war, citing a regional source
Trump announces a renewed “final opportunity” for Iran, warning of possible resumption of bombing, which dampens expectations of a meeting
June 30 drops to 65%11%
Trump announces a renewed “final opportunity” for Iran, warning of possible resumption of bombing, which dampens expectations of a meeting
Trump dismisses Tehran’s latest peace proposal but says diplomatic solution still “very possible” ahead of his meeting with Xi Jinping
May 15 dips to 2%1%
Despite dismissing the proposal, Trump’s cautious optimism was insufficient to revive market confidence, which remained near its lowest point.
Vice President JD Vance announces no deal was reached after 21 hours of talks, reinforcing market doubts and driving the
June 30 drops to 66%9%
Vice President JD Vance announces no deal was reached after 21 hours of talks, reinforcing market doubts and driving the
Trump publicly rejects Iran’s peace counteroffer as “stupid” and “garbage”
May 31 dips to 24%4%
Trump’s dismissal of Iran’s peace proposal and warning of retaliation signaled deteriorating diplomatic prospects, driving the
Iran submits counterproposal to US via Pakistani mediators; Trump calls it “totally unacceptable”
May 31 drops to 28%14%
Iran’s counterproposal and Trump’s harsh rejection highlighted diplomatic deadlock, pushing market odds sharply lower.
Trump announces a pause to “Project Freedom” after “positive movement” from Pakistani mediators, reinforcing belief that a US‑Iran diplomatic meeting could occur before June 30
June 30 dips to 75%3%
Trump announces a pause to “Project Freedom” after “positive movement” from Pakistani mediators, reinforcing belief that a US‑Iran diplomatic meeting could occur before June 30
Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping prepare to discuss Iran during upcoming summit
May 31 dips to 42%3%
Anticipation of high-level US-China talks including Iran issues provided modest support but no direct US-Iran meeting news kept
Trump calls Iran’s peace proposal “totally unacceptable” and labels ceasefire “on life support”
May 15 drops to 10%7%
Trump’s harsh rejection of Iran’s peace offer and bleak assessment of the ceasefire severely undermined market expectations for a diplomatic meeting.
Polymarket data shows the market jumps to 79% after U.S.
June 30 rises to 79%2%
officials publicly confirm ongoing talks amid “Operation Epic Fury,” reviving confidence that a meeting will occur by June 30
Secretary of State Marco Rubio says a diplomatic solution is “clear” and that negotiations are “moving forward,” lifting odds to a new high
June 30 dips to 76%4%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio says a diplomatic solution is “clear” and that negotiations are “moving forward,” lifting odds to a new high
U.S. offers Iran a framework deal that would end fighting and launch a 30‑day negotiation period on the nuclear program
June 30 jumps to 78%5%
U.S. offers Iran a framework deal that would end fighting and launch a 30‑day negotiation period on the nuclear program
CNN reports that a second round of US‑Iran talks in Pakistan “may not have taken place,” prompting a sharp drop in confidence and a
June 30 rises to 75%2%
CNN reports that a second round of US‑Iran talks in Pakistan “may not have taken place,” prompting a sharp drop in confidence and a
CNN live‑update reports that both sides are moving toward a memo to end the war, reviving expectations of an in‑person meeting and lifting odds again
June 30 jumps to 78%5%
CNN live‑update reports that both sides are moving toward a memo to end the war, reviving expectations of an in‑person meeting and lifting odds again
US Secretary of State Rubio says Washington awaits Iran’s response to ceasefire proposals
May 31 drops to 31%12%
Rubio’s statement of waiting for Iran’s reply amid ongoing clashes suggested stalled negotiations, lowering market confidence.
CNN reports U.S. officials say a second round of talks in Pakistan may have taken place, reinforcing expectations of a face‑to‑face meeting before the deadline
June 30 rises to 77%4%
CNN reports U.S. officials say a second round of talks in Pakistan may have taken place, reinforcing expectations of a face‑to‑face meeting before the deadline
Iran confirms receipt of the latest U.S.
June 30 rises to 76%3%
June 30 peace proposal and says talks are “close” to a final agreement, pushing the market to its highest level of the period
Polymarket data notes U.S. officials confirm ongoing talks amid “Operation Epic Fury,” reviving expectations of a pre‑June‑30 meeting and pushing odds back up
June 30 rises to 73%4%
Polymarket data notes U.S. officials confirm ongoing talks amid “Operation Epic Fury,” reviving expectations of a pre‑June‑30 meeting and pushing odds back up
US officials state the Iranian proposal remains “unsatisfactory,” pulling odds back down after the May 6 surge
June 30 drops to 73%7%
US officials state the Iranian proposal remains “unsatisfactory,” pulling odds back down after the May 6 surge
U.S. State Department confirms it has received Iran’s review of the U.S.
peace proposal but notes no formal agreement yet, stabilising the
US Defense Secretary warns Iran over support for Houthis, signaling tougher US stance
May 31 drops to 43%8%
Public US warnings of consequences for Iran’s regional proxy support indicated a hardening US position, reducing optimism for imminent diplomacy.
President Trump announces a pause to “Project Freedom” after “positive movement” from Pakistani mediators, reviving hopes of a June 30 meeting
June 30 rises to 73%4%
President Trump announces a pause to “Project Freedom” after “positive movement” from Pakistani mediators, reviving hopes of a June 30 meeting
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio states the U.S.
June 30 drops to 70%6%
will not wait for a written agreement before a diplomatic solution, reinforcing belief that a meeting could still occur
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi began a diplomatic tour in Beijing, meeting China’s Wang Yi and indicating Tehran’s willingness to engage multilateral partners, which
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi began a diplomatic tour in Beijing, meeting China’s Wang Yi and indicating Tehran’s willingness to engage multilateral partners, which reinforced market optimism
Iran announces the United States has responded to its latest peace proposal, indicating active diplomatic engagement and pushing the
June 30 jumps to 76%6%
Iran announces the United States has responded to its latest peace proposal, indicating active diplomatic engagement and pushing the
Report that the United States and Iran are closing in on a “one‑page” memorandum to end hostilities, outlining a 30‑day negotiation window and implying an imminent in‑person summit
June 30 rises to 75%4%
Report that the United States and Iran are closing in on a “one‑page” memorandum to end hostilities, outlining a 30‑day negotiation window and implying an imminent in‑person summit
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy asserts control over Strait of Hormuz navigation
May 31 plunges to 29%15%
Iran’s declaration of control over the strategic waterway heightened tensions, undermining prospects for diplomatic progress and causing a
US‑Iran indirect contacts resume via envoy Steve Witkoff;
June 30 surges to 80%22%
Iran begins reviewing Washington’s latest nuclear‑curb response, sparking a sharp rise in odds
President Trump announces temporary pause of the US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz to allow diplomatic efforts, but maintains overall pressure
May 15 surges to 32%20%
This move briefly raised hopes for diplomacy, causing a temporary
U.S. officials confirmed ongoing talks with Iran amid “Operation Epic Fury,” a clear signal that a meeting before the June 30 deadline was plausible, driving the
June 30 surges to 73%17%
U.S. officials confirmed ongoing talks with Iran amid “Operation Epic Fury,” a clear signal that a meeting before the June 30 deadline was plausible, driving the
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner travel to Pakistan for a new round of face‑to‑face talks with Iranian officials
June 30 jumps to 69%6%
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner travel to Pakistan for a new round of face‑to‑face talks with Iranian officials
President Trump announces “very good talks” with Iran and optimistic diplomatic signals
May 31 surges to 44%16%
Trump’s positive remarks on recent talks and Iran’s review of US peace plan briefly boosted market expectations for a diplomatic meeting.
Trump tells reporters he had “very good talks” with Iran and that a deal is “very possible,” further boosting market expectations
May 31 rises to 50%4%
Trump tells reporters he had “very good talks” with Iran and that a deal is “very possible,” further boosting market expectations
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi meets Iran’s Araghchi in Beijing, suggesting Beijing may broker a U.S.–Iran summit
May 31 jumps to 46%8%
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi meets Iran’s Araghchi in Beijing, suggesting Beijing may broker a U.S.–Iran summit
Trump announces a temporary halt to “Project Freedom” and says the U.S.
May 31 jumps to 38%11%
is “close to a one‑page memorandum” with Iran, reviving hopes of an in‑person meeting and pushing odds sharply higher
CNN reports a “one‑page memorandum” being floated that would end hostilities and trigger a 30‑day negotiation period, prompting a sharp market rally
June 30 jumps to 68%5%
CNN reports a “one‑page memorandum” being floated that would end hostilities and trigger a 30‑day negotiation period, prompting a sharp market rally
CNN live‑update reports Iran reviewing the U.S.
June 30 surges to 80%24%
proposal and “positive movement” from Pakistani mediators; President Trump pauses “Project Freedom,” boosting confidence
President Trump pauses the “Project Freedom” escort mission in the Strait of Hormuz, citing “great progress” toward a deal, which lifts odds modestly
May 31 dips to 27%3%
President Trump pauses the “Project Freedom” escort mission in the Strait of Hormuz, citing “great progress” toward a deal, which lifts odds modestly
Secretary of State Marco Rubio says a “clear diplomatic solution” is needed but warns Iran must cease enrichment first, adding uncertainty to any imminent face‑to‑face talks
June 30 jumps to 69%8%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio says a “clear diplomatic solution” is needed but warns Iran must cease enrichment first, adding uncertainty to any imminent face‑to‑face talks
U.S. officials confirm that indirect diplomatic contacts have resumed via envoy Steve Witkoff, suggesting momentum toward a direct meeting and raising odds
June 30 rises to 61%4%
U.S. officials confirm that indirect diplomatic contacts have resumed via envoy Steve Witkoff, suggesting momentum toward a direct meeting and raising odds
Iranian hard‑liners publicly denounce US talks, warning that “hostility will endure,” causing odds to slip
June 30 drops to 58%11%
Iranian hard‑liners publicly denounce US talks, warning that “hostility will endure,” causing odds to slip
President Trump warned of “much higher‑level” attacks if a deal was not reached, reviving fears of escalation and pulling the
June 30 drops to 56%11%
President Trump warned of “much higher‑level” attacks if a deal was not reached, reviving fears of escalation and pulling the
Iranian hard‑liners issue a public statement rejecting U.S.
June 30 plunges to 56%24%
demands, and the U.S. maintains the Strait‑of‑Hormuz blockade, causing the market to slip
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi cancels scheduled May 4 technical meeting in Vienna citing "technical reasons"
May 15 drops to 12%8%
This cancellation was interpreted as a setback, reducing market confidence in a face-to-face summit before the deadline.
Iranian FM Araghchi cancels a planned May 4 meeting with U.S.
May 31 drops to 31%13%
envoys citing “technical reasons,” causing a sharp drop in market confidence
Iran submits a new peace proposal via Pakistan;
June 30 drops to 57%9%
U.S. officials acknowledge receipt, reviving optimism that a meeting could be arranged before the deadline
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi cancels the planned May 4 in‑person meeting with U.S.
June 30 drops to 63%6%
officials, citing “technical reasons”
Reuters analysis warns US may extend the 30‑day cease‑fire deadline, suggesting continued military pressure;
June 30 dips to 69%2%
traders pull back, keeping odds steady around 69 %
Report that UK security adviser Jonathan Powell attended secret US‑Iran nuclear talks in Geneva, suggesting a possible breakthrough
June 30 jumps to 69%9%
Report that UK security adviser Jonathan Powell attended secret US‑Iran nuclear talks in Geneva, suggesting a possible breakthrough
Cryptobriefing notes Iran is reviewing Trump’s negotiation request, hinting at a possible diplomatic shift;
June 30 rises to 71%2%
market reacts with a small rise
Iran announced it had received a U.S.
June 30 jumps to 67%7%
response to its latest peace‑offer via Pakistani mediators, suggesting dialogue was still alive and nudging the market back up
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi cancels the scheduled May 4 technical meeting in Vienna, creating uncertainty but traders interpret the cancellation as a possible
June 30 jumps to 68%7%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi cancels the scheduled May 4 technical meeting in Vienna, creating uncertainty but traders interpret the cancellation as a possible “last‑minute” push for a face‑to‑face summit, lifting the
CNN reports US officials say a second round of talks in Pakistan “may not have taken place,” reinforcing deadlock and nudging odds upward modestly as traders reassess uncertainty
June 30 rises to 69%3%
CNN reports US officials say a second round of talks in Pakistan “may not have taken place,” reinforcing deadlock and nudging odds upward modestly as traders reassess uncertainty
Polymarket’s market update notes that U.S.
May 31 rises to 49%1%
Defense Secretary Hegseth’s remarks on Iranian support for Houthi attacks heighten tensions and reduce market confidence that a diplomatic meeting will happen before the deadline
Iran cancels a planned May 4 diplomatic meeting citing "technical reasons," confirming no in-person US-Iran meeting took place
May 5 drops to 1%6%
Iran cancels a planned May 4 diplomatic meeting citing "technical reasons," confirming no in-person US-Iran meeting took place
Trump publicly warns of secondary sanctions on entities buying Iranian oil or petrochemicals, further reducing incentives for a face‑to‑face meeting
May 5 dips to 6%3%
Trump publicly warns of secondary sanctions on entities buying Iranian oil or petrochemicals, further reducing incentives for a face‑to‑face meeting
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi cancels a scheduled May 4 meeting in Vienna citing “technical reasons,” casting doubt on near‑term diplomatic contact
June 30 drops to 61%5%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi cancels a scheduled May 4 meeting in Vienna citing “technical reasons,” casting doubt on near‑term diplomatic contact
U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth publicly accuses Iran of financing Houthi attacks, heightening tensions and pulling the market lower
June 30 jumps to 67%6%
U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth publicly accuses Iran of financing Houthi attacks, heightening tensions and pulling the market lower
Iran submits a new peace proposal via Pakistani mediators;
May 31 drops to 40%8%
U.S. response is reported as “still pending,” sparking a short‑term surge in optimism
Iran submits a 14‑point peace proposal to Pakistani mediators in response to a US nine‑point offer, sparking brief optimism and a 13‑point rise in odds
June 30 jumps to 79%13%
Iran submits a 14‑point peace proposal to Pakistani mediators in response to a US nine‑point offer, sparking brief optimism and a 13‑point rise in odds
US State Department publicly states the Iranian proposal is “unsatisfactory” and reiterates demand for cease‑fire compliance, dampening hopes and pulling odds back down
June 30 drops to 66%13%
US State Department publicly states the Iranian proposal is “unsatisfactory” and reiterates demand for cease‑fire compliance, dampening hopes and pulling odds back down
US Defense Secretary and President Trump issue warnings and secondary sanctions threats, signaling a shift away from diplomacy toward pressure tactics
May 5 dips to 0%1%
US Defense Secretary and President Trump issue warnings and secondary sanctions threats, signaling a shift away from diplomacy toward pressure tactics
Iran’s foreign minister holds calls with regional counterparts but no U.S.
May 31 jumps to 48%8%
officials join; U.S. officials decline to comment on receiving the proposal, keeping the meeting outlook bleak
U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth publicly warned Iran it would “pay” for supporting Houthi attacks, signalling a hardening U.S. stance and pushing the
June 30 drops to 60%11%
U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth publicly warned Iran it would “pay” for supporting Houthi attacks, signalling a hardening U.S. stance and pushing the
Defense Secretary Hegseth publicly warned Iran will pay for supporting Houthis attacks, signalling a hardening U.S. stance and nudging the
June 30 dips to 61%3%
Defense Secretary Hegseth publicly warned Iran will pay for supporting Houthis attacks, signalling a hardening U.S. stance and nudging the
Iran submits a new proposal to mediators in Pakistan but no US‑Iran face‑to‑face meeting is announced;
May 5 drops to 6%12%
US Defense Secretary’s comments on Iranian support for Houthi attacks further erode optimism
Defense Secretary Hegseth publicly states Iran will pay for supporting Houthi attacks, underscoring continued conflict and lowering optimism for a meeting
June 30 drops to 60%9%
Defense Secretary Hegseth publicly states Iran will pay for supporting Houthi attacks, underscoring continued conflict and lowering optimism for a meeting
President Trump extends the cease‑fire to allow more time for an Iranian peace proposal, briefly reviving market confidence
June 30 drops to 60%7%
President Trump extends the cease‑fire to allow more time for an Iranian peace proposal, briefly reviving market confidence
US Defense Secretary Hegseth accuses Iran of supporting Houthi attacks; Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi cancels May 4 technical meeting
May 15 plunges to 12%21%
Heightened tensions from accusations and the cancellation of a scheduled technical meeting in Vienna created significant doubt about progress toward a diplomatic meeting.
Iran cancels planned May 4 diplomatic meeting citing "technical reasons"
May 31 drops to 31%12%
Iran’s cancellation of a scheduled in-person meeting confirmed no direct US-Iran diplomatic engagement, reducing market confidence in a meeting by May 31.
Defense Secretary Hegseth says Iran will pay for Houthis’ Red Sea attacks, warning of secondary sanctions
June 30 drops to 69%6%
Defense Secretary Hegseth says Iran will pay for Houthis’ Red Sea attacks, warning of secondary sanctions
US announces secondary‑sanctions threat on entities buying Iranian oil/petrochemicals;
June 30 dips to 66%1%
Defense Secretary Hegseth blames Iran for Red‑Sea attacks – market perceives escalation, odds dip further
Live CNN update reports US‑senator Lisa Murkowski’s push for a formal authorization of the war, indicating continued military focus and no imminent diplomatic breakthrough
Live CNN update reports US‑senator Lisa Murkowski’s push for a formal authorization of the war, indicating continued military focus and no imminent diplomatic breakthrough
US Treasury sanctions six Chinese companies linked to Iran, and Iran cancels a planned May 4 meeting citing “technical reasons,” confirming no diplomatic meeting occurred by April
April 30 dips to 0%1%
US Treasury sanctions six Chinese companies linked to Iran, and Iran cancels a planned May 4 meeting citing “technical reasons,” confirming no diplomatic meeting occurred by April 30
U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth warns of Iranian support for Houthi attacks, heightening tension and driving odds down
May 31 dips to 48%3%
U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth warns of Iranian support for Houthi attacks, heightening tension and driving odds down
U.S. Treasury sanctions six Chinese chemical‑components firms linked to Iran
June 30 jumps to 75%9%
U.S. Treasury sanctions six Chinese chemical‑components firms linked to Iran
U.S. Treasury sanctions six Chinese chemical‑component firms linked to Iran, raising concerns that sanctions pressure could derail imminent talks
June 30 drops to 66%14%
U.S. Treasury sanctions six Chinese chemical‑component firms linked to Iran, raising concerns that sanctions pressure could derail imminent talks
U.S. Treasury sanctions six Chinese chemical‑components firms linked to Iran, heightening diplomatic costs and pushing the
June 30 dips to 64%2%
U.S. Treasury sanctions six Chinese chemical‑components firms linked to Iran, heightening diplomatic costs and pushing the
U.S. Treasury sanctions six Chinese chemical‑components firms linked to Iran, signaling heightened pressure on Tehran
June 30 drops to 69%6%
U.S. Treasury sanctions six Chinese chemical‑components firms linked to Iran, signaling heightened pressure on Tehran
Pakistan’s prime minister says a response to Iran’s proposal is still awaited, and no U.S.
May 31 dips to 40%1%
delegation is slated to travel to Islamabad, further lowering confidence in an imminent meeting
US State Department declares Iran’s latest proposal “unsatisfactory,” dampening optimism and pulling odds down
June 30 rises to 67%2%
US State Department declares Iran’s latest proposal “unsatisfactory,” dampening optimism and pulling odds down
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi cancelled the scheduled May 4 diplomatic meeting with U.S.
June 30 drops to 71%9%
officials, citing “technical reasons,” which knocked confidence in a near‑term summit
Reuters notes that Iran’s IRGC attacks commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz after Araghchi’s earlier statement that the strait was “completely open,” underscoring internal
May 5 dips to 9%3%
Reuters notes that Iran’s IRGC attacks commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz after Araghchi’s earlier statement that the strait was “completely open,” underscoring internal Iranian opposition to talks
Iranian Parliament Speaker mocks US diplomatic efforts after Axios report on stalled negotiations
May 31 drops to 47%8%
Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf publicly dismissed US-Iran negotiation reports as failed, signaling hardened Iranian stance and dampening market optimism.
US‑Iran two‑week cease‑fire announced, raising hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough and pushing odds to a new high
June 30 drops to 65%11%
US‑Iran two‑week cease‑fire announced, raising hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough and pushing odds to a new high
Al Jazeera confirmed that Trump’s Situation‑Room meeting focused on the Iranian proposal but did not include any plan for a US‑Iran face‑to‑face meeting, driving the final drop to
May 5 drops to 9%9%
Al Jazeera confirmed that Trump’s Situation‑Room meeting focused on the Iranian proposal but did not include any plan for a US‑Iran face‑to‑face meeting, driving the final drop to 9% Yes
US Treasury sanctions six Chinese chemical‑components firms linked to Iran, raising US pressure and causing a sharp drop in market confidence
June 30 dips to 67%4%
US Treasury sanctions six Chinese chemical‑components firms linked to Iran, raising US pressure and causing a sharp drop in market confidence
The Soufan Center notes the second cancellation of the US delegation to Islamabad within a week, with Iran pulling back or setting new conditions, cementing market belief that a
May 5 dips to 9%1%
The Soufan Center notes the second cancellation of the US delegation to Islamabad within a week, with Iran pulling back or setting new conditions, cementing market belief that a May 5 diplomatic meeting will not occur
Iranian police guard a rally in Tehran as the “temporary cease‑fire” is extended;
June 30 jumps to 80%9%
analysts cite “still‑alive diplomatic channel,” pushing odds up
U.S. officials confirm “Operation Epic Fury” is ongoing but note no face‑to‑face meeting yet, prompting a brief rally in odds
May 31 drops to 51%5%
U.S. officials confirm “Operation Epic Fury” is ongoing but note no face‑to‑face meeting yet, prompting a brief rally in odds
No official or credible reports of any in-person US-Iran diplomatic meeting; market
April 29 dips to 0%1%
No official or credible reports of any in-person US-Iran diplomatic meeting; market
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi cancels the planned May 4 in‑person meeting with US officials, citing “technical reasons,” deepening diplomatic deadlock and pushing odds
June 30 jumps to 71%5%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi cancels the planned May 4 in‑person meeting with US officials, citing “technical reasons,” deepening diplomatic deadlock and pushing odds down
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi lands in Islamabad to meet US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, signalling the first direct US‑Iran contact since the cease‑fire
June 30 jumps to 76%10%
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi lands in Islamabad to meet US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, signalling the first direct US‑Iran contact since the cease‑fire
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announces a technical‑team meeting in Vienna with IAEA experts, signalling renewed back‑channel talks
May 31 rises to 56%1%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announces a technical‑team meeting in Vienna with IAEA experts, signalling renewed back‑channel talks
U.S. Treasury sanctions six Chinese chemical‑components firms linked to Iran, raising the cost of any imminent diplomatic engagement
U.S. Treasury sanctions six Chinese chemical‑components firms linked to Iran, raising the cost of any imminent diplomatic engagement
Al Jazeera and the Washington Post detail Iran’s proposal to separate Strait‑of‑Hormuz talks from nuclear negotiations, while US officials remain non‑committal, signaling no
May 5 drops to 10%8%
Al Jazeera and the Washington Post detail Iran’s proposal to separate Strait‑of‑Hormuz talks from nuclear negotiations, while US officials remain non‑committal, signaling no imminent in‑person meeting
US reviews Iranian proposal delivered via Pakistan;
April 29 drops to 1%5%
no in-person meeting planned soon; Islamabad reopens after lockdown for anticipated talks that never happened
U.S. officials publicly confirm ongoing talks with Iran amid “Operation Epic Fury,” signalling a possible face‑to‑face meeting before the June 30 deadline
June 30 jumps to 80%14%
U.S. officials publicly confirm ongoing talks with Iran amid “Operation Epic Fury,” signalling a possible face‑to‑face meeting before the June 30 deadline
Al Jazeera analysis highlights that the US‑Iran talks remain stalled after a 21‑hour session in Islamabad failed to resolve core disputes, confirming the absence of a meeting
May 5 drops to 18%12%
Al Jazeera analysis highlights that the US‑Iran talks remain stalled after a 21‑hour session in Islamabad failed to resolve core disputes, confirming the absence of a meeting
The Washington Post reported Iran’s latest proposal split Strait‑of‑Hormuz talks from nuclear negotiations, effectively ruling out a direct US‑Iran summit before May 5, and the
May 5 drops to 18%7%
The Washington Post reported Iran’s latest proposal split Strait‑of‑Hormuz talks from nuclear negotiations, effectively ruling out a direct US‑Iran summit before May 5, and the market fell to 18%
Al Jazeera notes Iran’s foreign minister presents a proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz in Islamabad but refuses a direct meeting with U.S.
May 31 jumps to 52%9%
officials, reinforcing expectations that no bilateral meeting will occur
Iran submits a fresh negotiation proposal to Pakistani mediators;
May 31 drops to 41%11%
the U.S. White House says it has not received or confirmed the proposal, leaving the prospect of a U.S.–Iran meeting uncertain
U.S. Treasury announced sanctions on six Chinese chemical‑component firms linked to Iran, raising concerns that Tehran’s economic ties were being further isolated
June 30 jumps to 80%14%
U.S. Treasury announced sanctions on six Chinese chemical‑component firms linked to Iran, raising concerns that Tehran’s economic ties were being further isolated
Iranian Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei states no US‑Iran meeting is scheduled and that Tehran will convey its positions through Pakistan, confirming the absence of a
May 31 dips to 44%4%
Iranian Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei states no US‑Iran meeting is scheduled and that Tehran will convey its positions through Pakistan, confirming the absence of a face‑to‑face diplomatic window
The Guardian live‑blog notes US‑Trump’s vague comment that “Iran can telephone if it wants to negotiate” but offers no concrete plan for an in‑person meeting, reinforcing market
May 31 dips to 40%4%
The Guardian live‑blog notes US‑Trump’s vague comment that “Iran can telephone if it wants to negotiate” but offers no concrete plan for an in‑person meeting, reinforcing market doubts
Reuters reports Iran’s latest proposal explicitly postpones any nuclear‑program discussion until the war ends, further reducing expectations of a near‑term US‑Iran summit
May 31 dips to 48%4%
Reuters reports Iran’s latest proposal explicitly postpones any nuclear‑program discussion until the war ends, further reducing expectations of a near‑term US‑Iran summit
Iran’s foreign minister travels to St.
May 31 drops to 50%10%
Petersburg for talks with President Putin; no U.S. delegation is present, underscoring the lack of a U.S.–Iran face‑to‑face meeting
U.S. President Donald Trump discusses a new Iranian cease‑fire proposal with top national‑security aides, signalling US skepticism and no commitment to an in‑person meeting
May 31 drops to 58%7%
U.S. President Donald Trump discusses a new Iranian cease‑fire proposal with top national‑security aides, signalling US skepticism and no commitment to an in‑person meeting
Al Jazeera reports “room for progress” but notes volatile leaders and that any breakthrough would take years, dampening market optimism
May 5 drops to 12%5%
Al Jazeera reports “room for progress” but notes volatile leaders and that any breakthrough would take years, dampening market optimism
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi hands a “red‑lines” list to Pakistan and tells Russian President Vladimir Putin Tehran will decide on the diplomatic process, underscoring
May 31 drops to 52%6%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi hands a “red‑lines” list to Pakistan and tells Russian President Vladimir Putin Tehran will decide on the diplomatic process, underscoring that Iran wants talks only after the Strait of Hormuz is opened
Iran’s foreign minister visits Moscow and Oman but skips any direct US engagement;
May 5 dips to 25%3%
NPR highlights the absence of any US‑Iran face‑to‑face talks amid rising tensions
NPR highlighted that despite a flurry of diplomatic activity, there was “no sign of a meeting between Washington and Tehran,” further depressing odds to 25%
May 5 dips to 25%3%
NPR highlighted that despite a flurry of diplomatic activity, there was “no sign of a meeting between Washington and Tehran,” further depressing odds to 25%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi tells Russian media that Tehran is “looking into” President Trump’s request for negotiations, but no US‑Iran meeting is scheduled
May 31 jumps to 64%9%
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi tells Russian media that Tehran is “looking into” President Trump’s request for negotiations, but no US‑Iran meeting is scheduled
Reuters noted President Trump discussed Iran’s new “Hormuz‑first” proposal with his security team, which postponed nuclear talks and offered no in‑person US‑Iran meeting, sending
May 5 dips to 28%2%
Reuters noted President Trump discussed Iran’s new “Hormuz‑first” proposal with his security team, which postponed nuclear talks and offered no in‑person US‑Iran meeting, sending the
Reuters reports no direct US‑Iran meeting scheduled in Islamabad and notes the US blockade of Iranian ports, further lowering confidence
May 5 drops to 30%7%
Reuters reports no direct US‑Iran meeting scheduled in Islamabad and notes the US blockade of Iranian ports, further lowering confidence
The Guardian reports Trump’s statement that cancelling talks does not necessarily mean a return to fighting, but the lack of a concrete meeting date fuels speculation that a May 5
May 5 drops to 18%7%
The Guardian reports Trump’s statement that cancelling talks does not necessarily mean a return to fighting, but the lack of a concrete meeting date fuels speculation that a May 5 summit is unlikely
Iran’s Araghchi meets Russian President Putin, emphasizing strategic alliances amid stalled US talks;
April 29 drops to 6%5%
no face-to-face US-Iran meeting occurs
Reuters reports President Trump discusses Iran’s new war‑ending proposal with his national‑security team, but no in‑person U.S.‑Iran meeting is scheduled, dampening market optimism
May 31 drops to 43%7%
Reuters reports President Trump discusses Iran’s new war‑ending proposal with his national‑security team, but no in‑person U.S.‑Iran meeting is scheduled, dampening market optimism
Iran offers a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but postpones nuclear talks, showing partial willingness but maintaining key disagreements
May 5 drops to 25%5%
Iran offers a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but postpones nuclear talks, showing partial willingness but maintaining key disagreements
Analysis highlights persistent deadlock and no deal in Islamabad talks, with both sides holding firm on nuclear and regional issues
May 5 drops to 18%7%
Analysis highlights persistent deadlock and no deal in Islamabad talks, with both sides holding firm on nuclear and regional issues
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meets Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq and plans to meet Russian President Putin, showing Iran’s diplomatic efforts continue but not
April 30 dips to 8%2%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meets Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq and plans to meet Russian President Putin, showing Iran’s diplomatic efforts continue but not directly with US representatives
Araghchi leaves Pakistan for Oman and Russia;
May 5 plunges to 37%32%
US‑Iran peace talks described as “on uncertain ground,” reinforcing market doubts
Al Jazeera notes that, despite “room for progress,” both sides remain steadfast on core demands, and Trump’s cancellation is interpreted as a sign that talks have stalled, further
May 5 dips to 28%2%
Al Jazeera notes that, despite “room for progress,” both sides remain steadfast on core demands, and Trump’s cancellation is interpreted as a sign that talks have stalled, further eroding market confidence
President Trump states Iran sent a “much better” offer after cancellation but it is still insufficient;
April 30 dips to 10%3%
US-Iran peace talks remain stalled with no in-person meeting planned
Trump says Iran sent a “much better” offer ten minutes after the cancellation, but calls it still “not enough,” reinforcing the deadlock
May 5 drops to 22%8%
Trump says Iran sent a “much better” offer ten minutes after the cancellation, but calls it still “not enough,” reinforcing the deadlock
Araghchi departs Pakistan, meets Oman’s Sultan in Muscat and is slated to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, signalling Iran’s pivot to other partners rather than the U.S.
May 5 drops to 17%5%
Araghchi departs Pakistan, meets Oman’s Sultan in Muscat and is slated to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, signalling Iran’s pivot to other partners rather than the U.S.
Araghchi meets Omani Sultan and Pakistani mediators discussing conditions including lifting US blockade;
April 29 dips to 11%1%
Trump says Iran’s new offer is “not enough,” talks remain stalled
CNN reported that U.S. officials said a second round of US‑Iran talks in Pakistan “may not have taken place,” reinforcing market doubts and pushing odds down to 30%
May 5 drops to 30%7%
CNN reported that U.S. officials said a second round of US‑Iran talks in Pakistan “may not have taken place,” reinforcing market doubts and pushing odds down to 30%
President Trump cancels the planned U.S.
May 5 plunges to 37%16%
delegation’s trip to Pakistan, citing “infighting” in Iran and an inadequate Iranian offer
Iran’s Abbas Araghchi meets Pakistani officials and then travels to Oman, indicating indirect communication rather than direct US-Iran talks
April 30 drops to 13%7%
Iran’s Abbas Araghchi meets Pakistani officials and then travels to Oman, indicating indirect communication rather than direct US-Iran talks
President Trump cancels the planned US delegation’s travel to Pakistan after Araghchi departs Islamabad, effectively ending any chance of a face‑to‑face meeting
May 5 surges to 69%16%
President Trump cancels the planned US delegation’s travel to Pakistan after Araghchi departs Islamabad, effectively ending any chance of a face‑to‑face meeting
President Trump cancels US delegation’s trip to Pakistan citing inadequate Iranian offer and infighting in Iran;
April 30 plunges to 20%41%
Iranian Foreign Ministry confirms no direct US-Iran meeting scheduled, signaling diplomatic deadlock
Iranian state media reported that Araghchi arrived in Islamabad but would convey Iran’s position through Pakistani officials rather than meet US envoys, causing a sharp drop to
May 5 plunges to 37%34%
Iranian state media reported that Araghchi arrived in Islamabad but would convey Iran’s position through Pakistani officials rather than meet US envoys, causing a sharp drop to 37% Yes
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi meets Pakistani officials in Islamabad, but U.S.
May 31 jumps to 60%5%
Special Envoy Steve Witkoff’s planned trip is cancelled by President Trump, signaling a stall in direct talks
Reuters confirms Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson says no US‑Iran meeting is planned and that the US delegation’s trip was cancelled, reinforcing the diplomatic dead‑lock
May 5 drops to 30%11%
Reuters confirms Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson says no US‑Iran meeting is planned and that the US delegation’s trip was cancelled, reinforcing the diplomatic dead‑lock
US officially pulls out of peace talks with Iran after cancellation, with Trump asserting US holds all cards and Iran's leadership is divided
May 5 drops to 30%7%
US officially pulls out of peace talks with Iran after cancellation, with Trump asserting US holds all cards and Iran's leadership is divided
US President Trump cancels the trip of US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for Iran talks, citing inadequate Iranian offer and internal Iranian leadership
May 5 plunges to 37%32%
US President Trump cancels the trip of US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for Iran talks, citing inadequate Iranian offer and internal Iranian leadership confusion
Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei states that no direct U.S.–Iran meeting is planned in Pakistan and that Iran will convey its position through Pakistani
May 5 drops to 30%7%
Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei states that no direct U.S.–Iran meeting is planned in Pakistan and that Iran will convey its position through Pakistani officials
Iran denies any direct meeting with US planned;
April 29 plunges to 11%51%
Araghchi leaves Pakistan; Trump cancels US envoys’ planned travel to Islamabad, signaling breakdown in direct talks
Iran offers deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz but postpones nuclear talks, leading to US skepticism
May 15 plunges to 55%26%
Iran’s proposal to reopen the strategic waterway was seen as a positive step but postponement of nuclear talks dampened hopes for imminent direct diplomacy.
Iran seizes a ship suspected of collaborating with US military, escalating tensions and complicating diplomatic progress
May 5 drops to 55%8%
Iran seizes a ship suspected of collaborating with US military, escalating tensions and complicating diplomatic progress
US President Trump cancels envoy trip to Islamabad citing divisions within Iranian leadership
May 15 surges to 81%30%
Trump’s cancellation of the planned envoy visit to Pakistan signaled uncertainty and internal Iranian discord, causing a volatile market reaction with a sharp
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrives in Islamabad for talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, but Iran’s foreign ministry later states no meeting is
May 5 jumps to 53%13%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrives in Islamabad for talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, but Iran’s foreign ministry later states no meeting is planned, sparking market volatility
NPR reports that the US “pulls out of peace talks” with Iran, with Trump announcing the cancellation of the Islamabad trip and stating Iran’s offer was “not enough”
May 5 drops to 41%14%
NPR reports that the US “pulls out of peace talks” with Iran, with Trump announcing the cancellation of the Islamabad trip and stating Iran’s offer was “not enough”
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and former adviser Jared Kushner fly back to Islamabad to resume negotiations with Iranian officials
June 30 jumps to 75%9%
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and former adviser Jared Kushner fly back to Islamabad to resume negotiations with Iranian officials
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner prepare to travel to Pakistan for new talks;
April 30 surges to 61%21%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrives in Islamabad, raising hopes for resumed diplomacy
White House announces that U.S.
May 5 plunges to 53%15%
envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will travel to Pakistan on April 25 to meet Araghchi
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that Witkoff and Kushner would head to Pakistan “to resume negotiations,” briefly reviving optimism and lifting the
May 5 surges to 71%16%
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that Witkoff and Kushner would head to Pakistan “to resume negotiations,” briefly reviving optimism and lifting the
U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner travel to Pakistan for a second round of negotiations, prompting a brief
June 30 jumps to 71%8%
U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner travel to Pakistan for a second round of negotiations, prompting a brief
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrives in Islamabad for talks with Pakistani mediators;
April 29 surges to 55%19%
US envoys Witkoff and Kushner prepare to join, raising hopes for talks
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visits Pakistan amid talks, but Tehran denies any direct US-Iran meeting planned, creating uncertainty
May 5 plunges to 38%17%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visits Pakistan amid talks, but Tehran denies any direct US-Iran meeting planned, creating uncertainty
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi departs Pakistan after meetings with senior Pakistani officials, confirming no direct US‑Iran talks were scheduled and that Iran would
May 5 dips to 55%4%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi departs Pakistan after meetings with senior Pakistani officials, confirming no direct US‑Iran talks were scheduled and that Iran would convey its positions via Pakistan
Reports emerge of internal Iranian regime divisions and constraints placed on negotiators, undermining prospects for direct talks
April 29 plunges to 36%22%
Reports emerge of internal Iranian regime divisions and constraints placed on negotiators, undermining prospects for direct talks
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei posted on X that no US‑Iran meeting was planned in Pakistan, signalling a setback and pulling the
May 5 plunges to 55%22%
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei posted on X that no US‑Iran meeting was planned in Pakistan, signalling a setback and pulling the
US President Donald Trump cancels the planned visit of his top envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad, citing “excessive travel time” and Iran’s unchanged negotiating
May 5 plunges to 59%16%
US President Donald Trump cancels the planned visit of his top envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Islamabad, citing “excessive travel time” and Iran’s unchanged negotiating stance
US officials say Trump has given Iran three‑to‑five days to resolve internal infighting before further action, dampening expectations of a near‑term summit
May 5 plunges to 40%17%
US officials say Trump has given Iran three‑to‑five days to resolve internal infighting before further action, dampening expectations of a near‑term summit
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were scheduled to travel to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran, prompting the
May 5 rises to 77%2%
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were scheduled to travel to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran, prompting the
UK National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell secretly attends US-Iran nuclear negotiations in Geneva, raising hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough
May 15 jumps to 74%7%
This report suggested progress in indirect talks, briefly boosting market optimism about a possible diplomatic meeting.
US officials give Iran a 3-5 day ultimatum to resolve internal disputes before resuming attacks, indicating pressure but no direct meeting
April 29 surges to 58%16%
US officials give Iran a 3-5 day ultimatum to resolve internal disputes before resuming attacks, indicating pressure but no direct meeting
US officials give Iran 3-5 days to resolve internal infighting and engage in negotiations before resuming attacks, reflecting uncertainty and pressure on talks
April 30 plunges to 55%39%
US officials give Iran 3-5 days to resolve internal infighting and engage in negotiations before resuming attacks, reflecting uncertainty and pressure on talks
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrives in Islamabad for talks with Pakistani mediators, raising hopes of a U.S.–Iran meeting
May 5 drops to 68%7%
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrives in Islamabad for talks with Pakistani mediators, raising hopes of a U.S.–Iran meeting
President Trump extends ceasefire with Iran pending submission of Iranian proposal, but underlying diplomatic hurdles remain unresolved, causing market optimism to peak
April 30 surges to 94%34%
President Trump extends ceasefire with Iran pending submission of Iranian proposal, but underlying diplomatic hurdles remain unresolved, causing market optimism to peak
US President Trump extends Iran ceasefire to allow time for Iranian proposal submission, signaling ongoing but uncertain diplomatic efforts
May 5 drops to 63%12%
US President Trump extends Iran ceasefire to allow time for Iranian proposal submission, signaling ongoing but uncertain diplomatic efforts
US President Trump extends the ceasefire with Iran to allow ongoing diplomatic efforts to continue, signaling some hope for talks but no confirmed meeting yet
April 29 dips to 42%4%
US President Trump extends the ceasefire with Iran to allow ongoing diplomatic efforts to continue, signaling some hope for talks but no confirmed meeting yet
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi announced that technical teams would meet in Vienna with IAEA experts, raising hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough and pushing the market up
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi announced that technical teams would meet in Vienna with IAEA experts, raising hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough and pushing the market up to 75% Yes
CFR briefing notes the imminent expiry of the truce on April 22, creating uncertainty about any imminent diplomatic contact
May 5 drops to 57%6%
CFR briefing notes the imminent expiry of the truce on April 22, creating uncertainty about any imminent diplomatic contact
U.S. and Iranian delegations conclude 21 hours of talks in Islamabad without a deal;
June 30 drops to 63%8%
media report “no breakthrough”
President Trump gives Iran 3‑5 days to negotiate before resuming attacks, hinting at a narrow window for a meeting
May 5 dips to 63%2%
President Trump gives Iran 3‑5 days to negotiate before resuming attacks, hinting at a narrow window for a meeting
US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad collapse;
April 30 jumps to 71%11%
President Trump announces US Navy blockade of Iranian ports and Strait of Hormuz, raising tensions and signaling stalled diplomacy
U.S. Vice President JD Vance arrives in Islamabad for face‑to‑face talks with Iranian officials, the first high‑level U.S.–Iran meeting since 1979
June 30 dips to 71%4%
U.S. Vice President JD Vance arrives in Islamabad for face‑to‑face talks with Iranian officials, the first high‑level U.S.–Iran meeting since 1979
President Trump announces a two‑week cease‑fire with Iran, raising hopes for imminent talks
June 30 jumps to 75%9%
President Trump announces a two‑week cease‑fire with Iran, raising hopes for imminent talks
U.S. and Iran agree to a two‑week cease‑fire, mediated by Pakistan, raising hopes for talks
May 5 drops to 65%10%
U.S. and Iran agree to a two‑week cease‑fire, mediated by Pakistan, raising hopes for talks
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