**Persistent upside risks to Japanese inflation and the Bank of Japan’s recent hawkish signals are anchoring trader expectations for another 25-basis-point rate increase at the December 2026 meeting.** Core CPI excluding fresh food eased to 1.7% year-over-year in August, remaining below the 2% target for the eighth straight month, yet headline inflation held near 1.9% amid elevated energy and import costs tied to a weaker yen. The September 18 hike to 1.25%—approved 7-2 with dovish dissents—prompted Governor Ueda to emphasize preemptive action against potential overshoots, explicitly leaving room for larger or consecutive moves while monitoring the October outlook report and wage data. Market-implied odds of 69% for a December 25 bp rise versus 31% for no change reflect this data-dependent tightening path, consistent with economist surveys projecting rates at or above 1.25% by year-end and the gradual shift toward neutral policy.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว25 bps increase 69%
No change 31%
25 bps decrease 1.5%
50+ bps decrease 1.1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
31%
25 bps increase
69%
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps increase 69%
No change 31%
25 bps decrease 1.5%
50+ bps decrease 1.1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$259 ปริมาณ
1%
25 bps decrease
$254 ปริมาณ
1%
No change
$1,560 ปริมาณ
31%
25 bps increase
$2,074 ปริมาณ
69%
50+ bps increase
$416 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Persistent upside risks to Japanese inflation and the Bank of Japan’s recent hawkish signals are anchoring trader expectations for another 25-basis-point rate increase at the December 2026 meeting.** Core CPI excluding fresh food eased to 1.7% year-over-year in August, remaining below the 2% target for the eighth straight month, yet headline inflation held near 1.9% amid elevated energy and import costs tied to a weaker yen. The September 18 hike to 1.25%—approved 7-2 with dovish dissents—prompted Governor Ueda to emphasize preemptive action against potential overshoots, explicitly leaving room for larger or consecutive moves while monitoring the October outlook report and wage data. Market-implied odds of 69% for a December 25 bp rise versus 31% for no change reflect this data-dependent tightening path, consistent with economist surveys projecting rates at or above 1.25% by year-end and the gradual shift toward neutral policy.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 18, 2026, 7:57 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,564วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 18, 2026, 7:57 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Persistent upside risks to Japanese inflation and the Bank of Japan’s recent hawkish signals are anchoring trader expectations for another 25-basis-point rate increase at the December 2026 meeting.** Core CPI excluding fresh food eased to 1.7% year-over-year in August, remaining below the 2% target for the eighth straight month, yet headline inflation held near 1.9% amid elevated energy and import costs tied to a weaker yen. The September 18 hike to 1.25%—approved 7-2 with dovish dissents—prompted Governor Ueda to emphasize preemptive action against potential overshoots, explicitly leaving room for larger or consecutive moves while monitoring the October outlook report and wage data. Market-implied odds of 69% for a December 25 bp rise versus 31% for no change reflect this data-dependent tightening path, consistent with economist surveys projecting rates at or above 1.25% by year-end and the gradual shift toward neutral policy.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,564วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 18, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 18, 2026, 7:57 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent upside risks to Japanese inflation and the Bank of Japan’s recent hawkish signals are anchoring trader expectations for another 25-basis-point rate increase at the December 2026 meeting.** Core CPI excluding fresh food eased to 1.7% year-over-year in August, remaining below the 2% target for the eighth straight month, yet headline inflation held near 1.9% amid elevated energy and import costs tied to a weaker yen. The September 18 hike to 1.25%—approved 7-2 with dovish dissents—prompted Governor Ueda to emphasize preemptive action against potential overshoots, explicitly leaving room for larger or consecutive moves while monitoring the October outlook report and wage data. Market-implied odds of 69% for a December 25 bp rise versus 31% for no change reflect this data-dependent tightening path, consistent with economist surveys projecting rates at or above 1.25% by year-end and the gradual shift toward neutral policy.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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