Persistent inflation above the ECB’s 2% target, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, underpins trader expectations for the October 28-29 meeting. Euro-area HICP reached 3.3% in August, prompting the Governing Council’s September 25-basis-point hike to a 2.50% deposit rate and upward revisions to 2026-2028 inflation forecasts. Recent resilience in eurozone growth and manufacturing has also kept tightening risks alive, supporting the 31% implied probability of another 25-basis-point increase. At the same time, the absence of fresh escalation signals or sharply hotter data since mid-September has anchored the 68% probability of no change, with markets viewing the latest move as potentially completing the immediate tightening phase unless incoming indicators shift the balance.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วECB Interest Rates: October 2026
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
No change 68%
25 bps increase 31%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$112,265 ปริมาณ
$112,265 ปริมาณ
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
68%
25 bps increase
31%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 68%
25 bps increase 31%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$112,265 ปริมาณ
$112,265 ปริมาณ
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$6,192 ปริมาณ
<1%
25 bps decrease
$13,930 ปริมาณ
<1%
No change
$43,821 ปริมาณ
68%
25 bps increase
$32,802 ปริมาณ
31%
50+ bps increase
$15,520 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Persistent inflation above the ECB’s 2% target, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, underpins trader expectations for the October 28-29 meeting. Euro-area HICP reached 3.3% in August, prompting the Governing Council’s September 25-basis-point hike to a 2.50% deposit rate and upward revisions to 2026-2028 inflation forecasts. Recent resilience in eurozone growth and manufacturing has also kept tightening risks alive, supporting the 31% implied probability of another 25-basis-point increase. At the same time, the absence of fresh escalation signals or sharply hotter data since mid-September has anchored the 68% probability of no change, with markets viewing the latest move as potentially completing the immediate tightening phase unless incoming indicators shift the balance.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 24, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$112,265วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2026, 12:01 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Persistent inflation above the ECB’s 2% target, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, underpins trader expectations for the October 28-29 meeting. Euro-area HICP reached 3.3% in August, prompting the Governing Council’s September 25-basis-point hike to a 2.50% deposit rate and upward revisions to 2026-2028 inflation forecasts. Recent resilience in eurozone growth and manufacturing has also kept tightening risks alive, supporting the 31% implied probability of another 25-basis-point increase. At the same time, the absence of fresh escalation signals or sharply hotter data since mid-September has anchored the 68% probability of no change, with markets viewing the latest move as potentially completing the immediate tightening phase unless incoming indicators shift the balance.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$112,265วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2026, 12:01 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the ECB’s 2% target, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, underpins trader expectations for the October 28-29 meeting. Euro-area HICP reached 3.3% in August, prompting the Governing Council’s September 25-basis-point hike to a 2.50% deposit rate and upward revisions to 2026-2028 inflation forecasts. Recent resilience in eurozone growth and manufacturing has also kept tightening risks alive, supporting the 31% implied probability of another 25-basis-point increase. At the same time, the absence of fresh escalation signals or sharply hotter data since mid-September has anchored the 68% probability of no change, with markets viewing the latest move as potentially completing the immediate tightening phase unless incoming indicators shift the balance.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วที่เกี่ยวข้อง
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?
47%
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?
75%
Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?
46%
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