Elevated inflation readings, including core PCE near 3.3-4.1% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, combined with a stable labor market (unemployment at 4.1% and solid August payrolls), have driven market-implied odds toward a 25 basis point federal funds rate increase at the December 2026 FOMC meeting to 57.5%. With the current target range at 3.50-3.75%, trader consensus reflects hawkish Fed communications and revised dot plot projections showing fewer or no cuts this year. Recent strong job data and tempered disinflation have reinforced expectations of tighter policy, while downside risks to growth or faster cooling in prices could still shift odds toward no change (39.5%). The September 15-16 meeting and upcoming data releases remain key near-term catalysts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed Decision in December?
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase 57%
No change 40%
25 bps decrease 2.7%
50+ bps increase 1.6%
$730,107 ปริมาณ
$730,107 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
40%
25 bps increase
57%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 57%
No change 40%
25 bps decrease 2.7%
50+ bps increase 1.6%
$730,107 ปริมาณ
$730,107 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$110,272 ปริมาณ
1%
25 bps decrease
$163,505 ปริมาณ
3%
No change
$146,695 ปริมาณ
40%
25 bps increase
$197,964 ปริมาณ
57%
50+ bps increase
$111,672 ปริมาณ
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings, including core PCE near 3.3-4.1% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, combined with a stable labor market (unemployment at 4.1% and solid August payrolls), have driven market-implied odds toward a 25 basis point federal funds rate increase at the December 2026 FOMC meeting to 57.5%. With the current target range at 3.50-3.75%, trader consensus reflects hawkish Fed communications and revised dot plot projections showing fewer or no cuts this year. Recent strong job data and tempered disinflation have reinforced expectations of tighter policy, while downside risks to growth or faster cooling in prices could still shift odds toward no change (39.5%). The September 15-16 meeting and upcoming data releases remain key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$730,107วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings, including core PCE near 3.3-4.1% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, combined with a stable labor market (unemployment at 4.1% and solid August payrolls), have driven market-implied odds toward a 25 basis point federal funds rate increase at the December 2026 FOMC meeting to 57.5%. With the current target range at 3.50-3.75%, trader consensus reflects hawkish Fed communications and revised dot plot projections showing fewer or no cuts this year. Recent strong job data and tempered disinflation have reinforced expectations of tighter policy, while downside risks to growth or faster cooling in prices could still shift odds toward no change (39.5%). The September 15-16 meeting and upcoming data releases remain key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$730,107วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings, including core PCE near 3.3-4.1% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, combined with a stable labor market (unemployment at 4.1% and solid August payrolls), have driven market-implied odds toward a 25 basis point federal funds rate increase at the December 2026 FOMC meeting to 57.5%. With the current target range at 3.50-3.75%, trader consensus reflects hawkish Fed communications and revised dot plot projections showing fewer or no cuts this year. Recent strong job data and tempered disinflation have reinforced expectations of tighter policy, while downside risks to growth or faster cooling in prices could still shift odds toward no change (39.5%). The September 15-16 meeting and upcoming data releases remain key near-term catalysts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย