Trump’s personal appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, combined with the president’s explicit post-rate-hike expression of continued confidence on September 16, anchors the 96.3% market-implied probability that no firing attempt will occur by year-end. The unanimous 25-basis-point federal funds rate increase to the 3.75–4% target range defied administration calls for easing amid elevated inflation, yet Trump attributed the decision to a “hostile” board rather than Warsh personally and reiterated support for the chair’s independence. Supreme Court rulings preserving for-cause protections for Fed officials further constrain removal options. While persistent inflation or further hawkish moves could test this alignment, the current trader consensus reflects strong alignment between the White House and its hand-picked monetary-policy leader.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วTrump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?
Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?
4% โอกาส
$24,103 ปริมาณ
$24,103 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
4% โอกาส
$24,103 ปริมาณ
$24,103 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s personal appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, combined with the president’s explicit post-rate-hike expression of continued confidence on September 16, anchors the 96.3% market-implied probability that no firing attempt will occur by year-end. The unanimous 25-basis-point federal funds rate increase to the 3.75–4% target range defied administration calls for easing amid elevated inflation, yet Trump attributed the decision to a “hostile” board rather than Warsh personally and reiterated support for the chair’s independence. Supreme Court rulings preserving for-cause protections for Fed officials further constrain removal options. While persistent inflation or further hawkish moves could test this alignment, the current trader consensus reflects strong alignment between the White House and its hand-picked monetary-policy leader.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
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$24,103วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s personal appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, combined with the president’s explicit post-rate-hike expression of continued confidence on September 16, anchors the 96.3% market-implied probability that no firing attempt will occur by year-end. The unanimous 25-basis-point federal funds rate increase to the 3.75–4% target range defied administration calls for easing amid elevated inflation, yet Trump attributed the decision to a “hostile” board rather than Warsh personally and reiterated support for the chair’s independence. Supreme Court rulings preserving for-cause protections for Fed officials further constrain removal options. While persistent inflation or further hawkish moves could test this alignment, the current trader consensus reflects strong alignment between the White House and its hand-picked monetary-policy leader.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$24,103วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Trump’s personal appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, combined with the president’s explicit post-rate-hike expression of continued confidence on September 16, anchors the 96.3% market-implied probability that no firing attempt will occur by year-end. The unanimous 25-basis-point federal funds rate increase to the 3.75–4% target range defied administration calls for easing amid elevated inflation, yet Trump attributed the decision to a “hostile” board rather than Warsh personally and reiterated support for the chair’s independence. Supreme Court rulings preserving for-cause protections for Fed officials further constrain removal options. While persistent inflation or further hawkish moves could test this alignment, the current trader consensus reflects strong alignment between the White House and its hand-picked monetary-policy leader.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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